Turkish Relations with Russia Hinge on Iran

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu traveled to Armenia on Dec. 12 to participate in the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation meeting. Turkey has a troubled relationship with its neighbor, and this was Davutoglu's first trip to Yerevan since 2009. His visit comes a week after Russian President Vladimir Putin was in Armenia, a close Russian ally that in September announced its decision to join the Russia-led Customs Union.

Davutoglu's decision to renew efforts to normalize relations with Armenia is the outcome of a significant reorientation in regional dynamics. Warming relations between the United States and Iran are motivating both Turkey and Russia to re-evaluate their regional strategies. Should the American rapprochement with Iran continue, Turkey will likely attempt to indirectly challenge Russia, competing for influence in two strategic regions: the Black Sea and the Caucasus.