ASSESSMENTS

Trump Ups the Ante With Iran in the Persian Gulf

Apr 27, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

An Iranian warship takes part in celebrations for “National Persian Gulf Day” in the Strait of Hormuz on April 30, 2019.

(ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

Regardless of any public threats made by U.S. President Donald Trump, Iran will likely continue its aggressive maritime strategy in retaliation against U.S. sanctions and Washington's military presence in the Persian Gulf.
To avoid prompting a U.S. response, Tehran may initially focus these efforts on ramping up pressure against commercial targets in the region.
But Iran will eventually return to harassing U.S. naval ships in order to assess how far the White House has shifted its response posture and risk tolerance.
Iran’s nuclear activities and support of militias in Iraq, meanwhile, could still trigger the next spike in U.S.-Iran tensions as well.

Iran and the United States may be heading toward another round of confrontation, even as both countries deal with significant COVID-19 outbreaks at home. Following a recent incident where 11 Iranian ships harassed U.S. vessels transiting the Persian Gulf, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted April 22 that he had "instructed" the U.S. Navy to destroy any Iranian vessels harassing U.S. ships. It remains unclear the extent to which, if at all, the United States will adjust its rules of engagement in response to Iran's latest maritime provocations. But the exchange highlights how Washington and Tehran’s current hawkish streak and inclination toward public threats could lead to another round of miscalculation and/or escalation between the two rivals. ...

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