ASSESSMENTS

The U.K. Is Finally Making Its Brexit. What's Next?

undefined and Director of Analysis at RANE
Adriano Bosoni
Director of Analysis at RANE, Stratfor

Jan 31, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

This photo shows Brexit supporter Joseph Afrane dressed up in London's Parliament Square to celebrate the impending departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union on Jan. 31.
Brexit supporter Joseph Afrane dressed up in London's Parliament Square to celebrate the impending departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union on Jan. 31. The bloc and its former member state now face the tricky business of reaching an agreement on their future relationship.

(DOMINIC LIPINSKIi/PA Images via Getty Images)

Highlights

  • European Union demands that the United Kingdom remain closely aligned with its single-market rules will be the biggest obstacle to a comprehensive U.K.-EU trade agreement by the end of 2020.
  • Instead, post-Brexit trade negotiations are most likely to yield a limited deal covering mostly goods, combined with several temporary deals to minimize disruptions in other sectors.
  • The British government will also be simultaneously negotiating a trade deal with the United States in the coming months.
  • But because of domestic pressure to preserve London's strong economic ties with the bloc, a U.K.-EU trade agreement will likely occur before a U.K.-U.S. deal.

Three and a half years after the Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom is making its long-anticipated departure from the European Union. But this, of course, isn't the end of the geopolitical saga that has swept headlines since British citizens first voted to leave the bloc in June 2016. While politicians in Brussels and London agreed to the terms of the Jan. 31 exit, now comes the even bigger task of outlining their future bilateral relationship. Though if the countless Brexit negotiations over the years tell us anything, it's that the upcoming discussions between the European Union and the United Kingdom are bound to produce even more rounds of drama in 2020. At the end of the day, however, the will to end the uncertainty plaguing both economies will ultimately keep London and Brussels coming back to the negotiating table....

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