GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

The U.K. May Find That Getting to Brexit Was the Easy Part

Dec 30, 2019 | 10:30 GMT

A photograph of "The Family of Henry VIII: An Allegory of the Tudor Succession," a 16th century painting attributed to Lucas de Heere.

A photograph of "The Family of Henry VIII: An Allegory of the Tudor Succession," a 16th century painting attributed to Lucas de Heere.

(Sepia Times/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Highlights

  • While there are few obvious historical analogies for the political crisis Brexit has precipitated, there is one suggestive parallel — and it prompts some sobering thoughts.
  • Under Henry VIII, England crashed out of a European union created by the Roman Catholic Church. It took more than 175 years for the crisis that followed to be finally resolved.
  • Getting to Brexit was an ordeal for the United Kingdom, which is set to leave the European Union on Jan. 31. But the real struggle begins the day after.

Plenty of pundits have weighed in on the electoral implications of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's recent landslide victory, but fewer have addressed its strategic implications for the United Kingdom's position in the world. In part, I suspect, this is because there are few obvious analogies for the political crisis Brexit has precipitated, and, without historical comparison cases, forecasting too easily becomes guesswork. There is, though, one suggestive parallel for what Britain is going through. Extrapolating possible futures from an isolated analogy is open to obvious objections; however, it is surely better than working without comparisons of any kind -- and it prompts some sobering thoughts....

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