ASSESSMENTS

Ukraine: With Russian Support, Separatists Make Gains

Sep 2, 2014 | 16:14 GMT

Ukraine Tactical Update
Soldiers from a Ukrainian volunteer battalion stand guard in the Donetsk province city of Novoazovsk on Aug. 27.

(Alexander KHUDOTEPLY/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

The Ukrainian government's operation against pro-Russia separatists appears to be on the verge of collapse in key areas, with forces suffering considerable reversals and facing the threat of encirclement at multiple points across eastern Ukraine. Given the separatists' rapid advances, considerable equipment range as well as notable artillery and general firepower, it is becoming increasingly clear that Russia has contributed greatly to militant operations — with Russian units likely even leading a number of key assaults against Ukrainian positions.

At the moment, Russia possesses a significant military advantage in eastern Ukraine. Through this recent push, Moscow hopes to force Kiev into direct talks with militants. Militarily, time is on Moscow's side, but it seeks to press this advantage while separatists retain the upper hand and before sanctions impact the Russian economy.

Militants in eastern Ukraine have made substantial progress, threatening to push already exhausted government forces to the breaking point....

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