In Ukraine, Separatists Are Running Out of Reasons Not to Fight

The fighting in eastern Ukraine may be on the verge of getting worse, perhaps even moving beyond skirmishes to actual limited offensives. Over the past week, we have seen an uptick in fighting along the demarcation line in eastern Ukraine, as well as movements of equipment back to the front line by both sides. At the same time, it is becoming clear that Ukraine will not be implementing legal changes as required by the Minsk agreement within the timeframe that was put forward, and deadlines will have to be extended for the accord to be implemented. And pushing back the Minsk agreement implementation timeline means European sanctions on Russia are unlikely to expire in January, diminishing the incentive the separatists and Moscow have to tamp down the fighting.