Russia's ability to sustain its war efforts despite mounting economic strain, combined with potential U.S. distraction from a prolonged Middle East conflict, makes meaningful progress in Ukraine peace negotiations unlikely in the near term. Four years have passed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. But despite continued escalation and recent U.S. policy shifts, Russia has yet to achieve any of its core aims, which include seizing Kyiv, toppling Ukraine's government and securing full control of regions it officially annexed in 2022. After U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office in 2025, the Kremlin pursued direct talks with Washington to curb U.S. support for Ukraine and secure sanctions relief, but the results were limited. Ukraine's defenses held firm, and Western unity (though fragile) did not collapse. On the battlefield, Russia's advantages in manpower and equipment have produced only slow, costly territorial gains. Ukrainian forces constrained...
