GRAPHICS

Ukraine's Frozen Conflict

Nov 3, 2014 | 19:39 GMT

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Ukraine's Frozen Conflict

The Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics are byproducts of the crisis in Ukraine that began in November 2013. The decision by then-President Viktor Yanukovich to cancel a planned free trade and association agreement with the European Union spurred large-scale demonstrations, which eventually culminated in Yanukovich's February ouster and his replacement by a pro-Western government. This upheaval dramatically reversed Russia's position in Ukraine. Moscow responded by annexing Crimea and supporting pro-Russian separatist demonstrations throughout eastern and southern Ukraine.

These demonstrations were strongest in the easternmost provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, which, after Crimea, have traditionally been the most pro-Russia parts of Ukraine. Not unlike the pro-Western Euromaidan movement in Kiev, pro-Russia demonstrators stormed and occupied regional administrative and security buildings on the grounds that the new government in Kiev was illegitimate. Eventually, armed militants — many with direct ties to Russia — joined the demonstrations. The movement culminated in activists announcing the formation of new People's Republics in Donetsk and Luhansk. Both regions held referendums in May on formally separating from the Ukrainian state and establishing self-rule. The results showed that 89 percent of residents were in favor, although independent observers never verified this number. Following the referendum, pro-Russian leaders formally established the People's Republics.

Kiev did not recognize the legitimacy of these separatist republics and in June launched military operations to retake control of the regions. More than five months of conflict ensued between Ukrainian security forces and Russian-backed separatists. However, the Ukrainian government has still not managed to subdue large parts of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, largely because of weapons and personnel flows from Russia. This failure compelled Ukraine to sign a cease-fire with the separatists and to agree to certain "special status" measures for the territories outside its control. The two sides nonetheless remain at odds.

In a broader sense, the emergence of the separatist republics is similar to other breakaway territories throughout the former Soviet Union. The breakup of the Soviet Union produced conflicts between some of the newfound independent republics and territories within their borders that did not wish to be part of the new state. This was the case for Moldova's Transdniestria region and Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions, which all supported closer orientation to Moscow rather than to their host countries. Russia backed all of these territories in their conflicts to break away and, though they are still not recognized by most of the international community, Moscow's military and financial support fuels their existence. As it stands, the tension in Ukraine appears to be settling in to become yet another long-term "frozen conflict," with the breakaway territories established in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk outside Kiev's control and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future.