Several groups are competing for power and a place in any future political structure in Ukraine. The first is the Fatherland Party, under the leadership of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and former Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko. While Timoshenko has been willing to cooperate with Moscow in the past, Fatherland is currently Western-oriented and can be expected to push for further integration with the European Union in the near future in trying to balance against Russia. In recent months, the nationalist Svoboda party has played an active and sometimes aggressive role in the coalition that has represented the opposition throughout Ukraine's protests. While Svoboda has been committed to cooperating with both Fatherland and the United Democratic Alliance for Reform throughout the protests and the formation of the interim government, the party's strongly nationalist and right-wing ideology ultimately could put it at odds with more pragmatic members of the coalition.
Though not a part of the interim government, the United Democratic Alliance for Reform cooperated closely with Fatherland throughout the anti-Yanukovich protests. After withdrawing from the presidential race, party leader Vitali Klitschko announced his decision to run for mayor of Kiev instead and threw his support to Petro Poroshenko, a pro-Western oligarch and the seventh-wealthiest man in Ukraine. While Poroshenko is likely to do well in the upcoming presidential elections, his influence in Ukraine's parliament — the Verkhovna Rada — is relatively limited as his party, Solidarity, is not currently formally represented in the legislature. The remnants of Yanukovich's Party of Regions could present a challenge for the interim government. Despite Yanukovich's ouster and a mass desertion from the party's parliamentary caucus, the party still holds nearly a third of the seats in the Verkhovna Rada. With 60 of the Verkhovna Rada's 450 members currently labeling themselves independents and 72 belonging to the two parliamentary groups formed in February (mostly for former members of the Party of Regions), a significant portion of the legislature is open to forming new alliances — or returning to old ones. The Communist Party, with 32 members, could also serve as an important swing vote.
The interim government's ability to remain united as it faces growing pressure from Russia, domestic economic troubles and challenges from far-right groups depends on continued cooperation among diverse political parties within Ukraine's parliament, as well as the international community's commitment to keep its promises of financial assistance to Kiev. While ongoing international negotiations and Ukraine's presidential race will help shape the direction of the country, the potential paralysis of the interim government will define its future.
