ASSESSMENTS

For the U.S. and Russia, True Progress in Syria Is Still a Distant Prospect

Jul 17, 2017 | 14:02 GMT

An end to the civil war remains a distant prospect, given the fragility of the cease-fire, Russia's limited influence over Iran and Syria, and disparate Russian and U.S. goals.

The cease-fire agreement between Washington and Moscow may be a milestone, but even in the best-case scenario it won't move the conflict much closer to a resolution.

(LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/Getty Images)

Forecast Highlights

  • The cease-fire agreement in Syria between the United States and Russia marks a new level of cooperation for the two countries.
  • Washington hopes to use the deal as a springboard for negotiations with Moscow to settle the Syrian conflict.
  • But an end to the civil war remains a distant prospect, given the fragility of the cease-fire, Russia's limited influence over Iran and Syria, and disparate Russian and U.S. goals.

The United States and Russia may have reached a cease-fire agreement in Syria, but the ramifications almost certainly will be less drastic than many would like. The July 7 agreement covers the three southwestern Syrian provinces of Quneitra, Daraa and Sweida, and marks a new level of cooperation between the United States and Russia on the Syrian conflict. Previously, their coordination had been limited to deconfliction mechanisms aimed at preventing an accidental skirmish. The White House has made it clear that it hopes to use this agreement with Russia as a springboard, meant to increase negotiations with Moscow aimed at settling the conflict. But the end of the Syrian war remains a distinctly distant prospect, especially given that the new cease-fire agreement already has been violated multiple times in the past week....

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