ASSESSMENTS

As U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Flounder, Israel Inches Toward Escalation

Jun 12, 2025 | 16:32 GMT

An aerial depiction of Iran's Zagros Mountains and the Strait of Hormuz.
An aerial depiction of Iran's Zagros Mountains and the Strait of Hormuz.

(ASTROMUJOFF via Gety Images)

As U.S.-Iran nuclear talks flounder, Israel is growing increasingly likely to strike Iran's nuclear program, which would likely lead Iran to target Israeli and potentially U.S. assets in the region, as well as weaken Iran's reformist-moderate presidency and empower its hard-liners. The United States' self-imposed 60-day deadline for negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran ended on June 12 without a deal, and the next round of indirect negotiations, currently scheduled for June 15 in Oman, are reportedly in jeopardy. The State Department announced on June 11 that it ordered all nonessential personnel to depart Iraq, and U.S. Central Command said the U.S. defense secretary had "authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations" in the Middle East. The drawdown in the U.S. presence is due to growing U.S. intelligence that Israel may soon strike Iran's nuclear program with or without U.S. approval. Meanwhile, Iran's foreign ministry and atomic energy...

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