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Cars line up on the Mexican side of the San Ysidro crossing port at the U.S.-Mexico border in Tijuana, Mexico, on March 12, 2020.Cars line up on the Mexican side of the San Ysidro crossing port at the U.S.-Mexico border in Tijuana, Mexico, on March 12, 2020.

Biden’s more lenient policies and the expected distribution of COVID-19 vaccines will reduce Mexico’s incentive to block northbound migrants from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.

U.S.-Mexico Border Crossings Are Poised to Grow in 2021

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Mexico

United States

Economics

Politics

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The Importance of Mexico

The compounding crises of 2020 will likely contribute to a new wave of immigrants from hard-hit Central American countries. While previous surges of migrants in 2018 and 2019 contributed to significant disruptions along the U.S.-Mexico border, a repeat of those episodes in 2021 is unlikely. But addressing the many security challenges that still plague the United States’ southern border will require working more deeply with Mexico on a long-term solution.

COLUMNS

U.S.-Mexico Border Crossings Are Poised to Grow in 2021

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