COLUMNS
A U.S.-Taliban Deal Is Likely. Peace in Afghanistan Is Not.
![undefined and South Asia Analyst](https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Faisal-Pervaiz.jpg)
Oct 3, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
![A man walks by election billboards outside of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's campaign headquarters in Kabul on Sept. 29.](https://worldview.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/2x1_full/public/afghanistan%20elections%20display%20GettyImages-1172255121.jpg?itok=sBKuU26g)
As the U.S. conflict in Afghanistan enters its 19th year, several significant developments have unfolded in recent weeks that will shape the country's security and governance dynamics.
(PAULA BRONSTEIN/Getty Images)
Highlights
- The wider war in Afghanistan will continue until the Taliban and the Afghan government agree to a nationwide cease-fire in separate talks.
- The continued violence will cause hiccups in U.S.-Taliban negotiations, but their mutual desire for a political settlement will still eventually yield a limited peace deal.
- The prospects for long-term stability in Afghanistan, however, will be dictated more by the Afghan government that emerges following Sept. 28 elections.
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