On Geopolitics

A U.S.-Taliban Deal Is Likely. Peace in Afghanistan Is Not.

Faisel Pervaiz
South Asia Analyst, Stratfor
Oct 3, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
A man walks by election billboards outside of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's campaign headquarters in Kabul on Sept. 29.

As the U.S. conflict in Afghanistan enters its 19th year, several significant developments have unfolded in recent weeks that will shape the country's security and governance dynamics. 


After nearly a year of negotiations, U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad announced a draft peace deal with the Taliban on Sept. 2. But shortly thereafter, an insurgent attack in Kabul prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to abruptly call off negotiations on Sept. 7, which were aimed at starting the long process to finally end their 18-year conflict in Afghanistan. U.S.-Taliban talks, however, were always likely to resume due to the two sides' shared need for a political settlement. And indeed, it looks like they just might in the coming days, with officials from both sides arriving in Pakistan on Oct. 2.  But until the government in Kabul reaches its own "intra-Afghan" cease-fire agreement with the Taliban, fighting will persist regardless of whatever deal the United States eventually strikes with the insurgent organization. And thus, the fate of peace in Afghanistan will hinge more whether the winner of the country's Sept. 28 presidential...

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