Amid uncertainty as to whether Uzbekistan's longtime leader, Islam Karimov, is still alive, speculation is running rampant about who his successor might be. Technically, Senate Speaker Nigmatulla Yuldashev would assume Karimov's responsibilities for up to three months until an election could be held, should rumors of the president's death prove true. But the official, legal transition is rarely what matters most in countries where dictatorships are hidden beneath the guise of democracy. Instead, the more important thing to watch is the power struggle unfolding among Uzbekistan's clans, which have long been deeply divided along regional lines.
The country's largest clans — Tashkent, Samarkand and Fergana — have run Uzbek politics for nearly a century. The minor clans, Jizzakh, Kashkadarya, Khorezm and Karakalpak, have flitted among them in the meantime. Because the Fergana clan's leaders were recently ousted from power, the competition for control of the country has fallen to the Tashkent and Samarkand chiefs. Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who hails from Jizzakh but leads the neighboring Samarkand clan, appears to be Karimov's most likely successor at this point. The Uzbek people know him, and he is a savvy politician who is open to change and improving Uzbekistan's foreign relations. By comparison, rival Tashkent chief and security services head Rustan Inoyatov has a heavy-handed style of leadership, fears instability and prefers neutral diplomacy.
