In Venezuela, the Consequences of a Delayed Transition

An ambiguous period is about to begin in Venezuela. Just one day before President Hugo Chavez was to be inaugurated, the country's Supreme Court ruled that because the ailing leader is an incumbent, an inauguration is merely a formality. The Supreme Court ruling means Chavez's fourth consecutive term has effectively begun and Nicolas Maduro will continue as both the vice president and the acting president.

Without domestic or external pressure forcing a transition, Chavez's inner circle now may take its time before calling new elections. The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela, commonly known by its Spanish acronym, PSUV, may use this time to address pressing economic issues and to further consolidate support behind a successor, or a team of successors, before risking a democratic transition. But the delay is also a sign of weakness, signaling that the unity of the ruling party might be tenuous. The longer the party waits to begin the transition, the more precarious Venezuela's economic, political and social situation will become, and instability in Venezuela would have a huge impact throughout the region and in global energy markets. At the same time, a haphazard transition in which the country's economic challenges and the ruling party's internal problems are not addressed could be even more problematic.