ASSESSMENTS

For Venezuela, There's a Little Light at the End of the Tunnel

Jan 25, 2018 | 14:55 GMT

A collective in a hilltop shantytown in Caracas created its own currency, the panal, to fight chronic shortages of cash in inflation-ridden Venezuela.

Stacks of bills of a new local community currency, the panal, launched in a working-class neighborhood in Caracas, sit at the BanPanal communal bank during December 2017.

(FEDERICO PARRA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Venezuela's inflation will accelerate in 2018 due to reduced access to foreign currency and the rapid growth of the country's monetary base. 
  • Any post-Maduro government will inherit a country with a heavily reduced oil sector, with an overstaffed public sector and with currency control mechanisms that encourage the misuse of government oil revenue.  
  • Controversial austerity measures are likely to encounter resistance from government workers and members of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela.

After the turn of the millennium, Venezuela enjoyed a windfall thanks to high oil prices that bankrolled massive public spending. Fast-forward a decade, however, and the situation is bleak: An insolvent central government and high inflation are impoverishing a whole generation of Venezuelans. The current situation will likely force any new administration to attempt major structural reforms to stabilize the economy over the next decade, beyond the current stopgap measures of slashing imports and printing more bolivars. In the short term, the overriding political question centers on whether embattled President Nicolas Maduro will step aside to allow others to begin addressing the crisis. But even after any immediate solution to Venezuela's political impasse, the country's leaders will face the difficult task of fixing a broken economy. Venezuela's leaders may succeed in taming inflation within the decade, but they are likely to bequeath a country that is deprived of much of its...

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