ASSESSMENTS

In Vietnam, Clouds Gather on the Horizon

Jan 3, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

This May 24, 2019, photograph shows garment workers making men's suits in a factory in Hanoi, Vietnam.

This May 24, 2019, photograph shows garment workers making men's suits in a factory in Hanoi. Vietnam is doing its best to weave its way through the great power competition between China and the United States.

(MANAN VATSYAYANA/AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

  •  
  • Vietnam is likely to continue its economic success story in the year to come.
  • Because Vietnam will chair the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and sit on the U.N. Security Council in 2020, it will have diplomatic leverage to counter China's maritime push, although it will do so carefully to avoid provoking Beijing excessively.
  • Political infighting will likely intensify ahead of Vietnam's 2021 leadership transition, testing its political stability and strategic balance between China and the United States.
  •  

Vietnam shone in the geopolitical spotlight in 2019, writing an economic success story amid global uncertainty over trade, mediating between the United States and North Korea and becoming a key security partner for powers near and far. But as Vietnam prepares for an all-important leadership transition in January 2021, jockeying for influence among domestic political players and major outside powers will test the country's political stability and strategic balance. Such a risk could complicate Vietnam's investment climate at a time when competition is heating up to be the most business-friendly destination in the region....

Subscribe to view this article

Subscribe Now

Subscribe

Already have an account?