COLUMNS

Violence, Security and the Next Mexican President

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Scott Stewart
VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor

Aug 14, 2018 | 09:00 GMT

In this photograph, police investigate the killing of a colleague in Acapulco, Mexico, on July 23, 2018.

Policemen work at a crime scene after a colleague was killed in Acapulco on July 23, 2018. Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who will take office on Dec. 1, inherits a messy war on drug cartels from his predecessor Enrique Pena Nieto. Since Mexico deployed its army to fight drug trafficking in 2006 during the presidency of Felipe Calderon, the country has been engulfed in a wave of violence that has killed more than 200,000, left more than 30,000 missing and resulted in complaints against the heavily armed security forces due to rights violations, extrajudicial executions and forced disappearances.

(FRANCISCO ROBLES/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Despite the fears of some, the incoming administration of President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador appears less radical than many had predicted. 
  • The campaign promise of an amnesty for narcotics crimes appears be quite limited and will not apply to those who have been involved in violent crimes. 
  • Mexico may decriminalize marijuana and may attempt to regulate the cultivation of opium poppies. 
  • Removing the military from the war against the cartels will remain difficult.

In just over three months, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will be inaugurated as the next president of Mexico. He will be armed with a public mandate to tackle corruption and drug violence. His party, the National Regeneration Movement, will also enjoy a majority in both houses of Congress. That control will give him an opportunity that presidents Enrique Pena Nieto, Felipe Calderon and Vicente Fox did not have – a strong chance to carry out his political agenda....

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