Popocatepetl, a volcano about 70 kilometers (43 miles) southeast of Mexico City, has been increasingly active during the past week after briefly calming down from an active period in May. On July 10, Popocatepetl registered 45 exhalation events of steam, gas and ash, with the cloud reaching a height of more than 2 kilometers. On July 6, the Mexican National Disaster Prevention Center raised the alert level to Yellow, Phase III — the third highest of a seven-stage scale. There have been no evacuations recommended as of yet, although traffic is being monitored on key evacuation routes.
Ash and infrastructure disruptions from a large eruption of Popocatepetl could affect nearly 30 million people. Some population centers could be in the path of deadly mudslides, and volcanic ash could cause economic disruptions. The Mexico City international airport services roughly 65,000 travelers a day, and economic activity in Mexico City accounts for about 30 percent of Mexico's gross domestic product. Direct and indirect contributions from the aviation industry alone contributed an estimated 2 percent of Mexico's overall gross domestic product in 2011. On July 4-5, ash from Popocatepetl's continued eruptions caused the cancellation of dozens of flights at Mexico City's airport, primarily from airlines based in the United States; Mexican airlines were only temporarily halted.
Popocatepetl has been active in some form for the past 20 years, so some rumblings are not unusual for the region. However, this ongoing activity brings the risk of complacency that could create problems if an evacuation warning is issued. Predicting the specifics of such an event is difficult, and this volcanic activity does not necessarily imply an impending, larger eruption, but the underlying economic considerations and potential effects come to the forefront with any increase in activity.
