West Africa's Ebola Outbreak Is Still a Limited Threat

The outbreak of Ebola, first reported in Guinea in March, has already spread to several nearby West African countries. A few recent cases have raised concerns that it could spread even farther. As of July 27, approximately 1,300 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of infection were reported in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with 729 recorded deaths. The largest Ebola outbreak previously recorded occurred in Uganda in 2000-2001, with 425 confirmed cases.

More recently, the infection of two U.S. citizens and the infection-related death of a Liberian man traveling by plane to Nigeria brought significant attention to the disease. But while isolated incidents are capable of spurring awareness, they seldom indicate a change in the behavior or spread of a virus. Although the risk of an outbreak in Nigeria is low, Ebola remains difficult to control in the regions of West Africa that are already affected, partly because of porous borders, many of which have been closed to try and prevent the spread of the virus. Still, the outbreak will have only a negligible effect on these countries.