ASSESSMENTS

What Armenia's Protests Mean for Russia

Apr 30, 2018 | 10:00 GMT

In this photograph, Armenian police arrest a man during a protest in Yerevan, the country's capital, on April 22, 2018.

Armenian police arrest a man during a protest in Yerevan, the country's capital, on April 22, 2018. Protesters were rallying against the election of the former president to the post of prime minister.

(VANO SHLAMOV/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

As the political crisis in Armenia continues to unfold, no external country is more key in shaping — and being shaped by — Armenia's political evolution than Russia.
Russia serves as Armenia's main ally and security guarantor, but Moscow could have a lot to lose if the situation in the country goes awry.
While Russia is unlikely to intervene in Armenia in a direct military sense — barring a major security crisis — the Kremlin is and will be active behind the scenes as it attempts to shape the political trajectory of the country.

Armenia's political crisis could soon come to a head. On May 1, the country's parliament is set to hold a special session to elect a new prime minister, and opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan is calling for large-scale demonstrations to be held the same day. Moreover, Pashinyan has vowed that if the position of prime minister and oversight of fresh elections is not given to a people's candidate (such as himself), then demonstrations will continue and intensify. That outcome would be a substantial concern for Armenia's key ally, Russia. As events unfold, Russia is positioned to both shape and be shaped by the Armenian crisis. ...

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