The attempted assassination of Iraq’s prime minister will increase the risk of violent conflict between non-state and state armed forces in the country, though it could also create a potential fresh path forward in government formation talks. No group has claimed responsibility for the Nov. 6 assassination attempt on Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. However, Iran-backed militias affiliated with the Fatah alliance are the most likely culprits given their ongoing disputes with the prime minister, as well as their motive to influence government formation talks following Iraq’s inconclusive Oct. 10 elections. Three militia members affiliated with the Fatah Alliance were also referred to the judiciary after a Nov. 9 meeting between key Iraqi leaders on the assassination attempt -- suggesting they had reached a consensus that Iran-backed militiamen were indeed to blame for the attack. ...
