Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's likely arrest will weaken his political influence, but the far-right will remain strong, potentially threatening left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's re-election bid in 2026. In response, Lula will adopt populist policies aimed at boosting support ahead of the vote, increasing regulatory volatility for businesses. On Feb. 18, Brazil's attorney general, Paulo Gonet, charged Bolsonaro with leading an armed criminal organization that plotted a coup following the 2022 presidential election. 33 of Bolsonaro's former ministers, aides and political allies -- including high-ranking military officials, a former intelligence chief, defense minister and national security adviser -- have also been charged. The Supreme Court has begun proceedings for a trial that will likely result in the arrests of Bolsonaro and some of the other individuals involved. If convicted, the former president could face 12 to 40 years in prison. Bolsonaro said the charges were politically motivated...
