ASSESSMENTS

What to Expect from AMLO on Immigration

Dec 6, 2018 | 06:30 GMT

A picture showing Honduran migrants gathering on the Mexican side of the U.S.-Mexico border fence near Tijuana after unsuccessfully attempting to cross into the United States, Dec 1.

Honduran migrants gather on the Mexican side of the U.S.-Mexico border fence near Tijuana after unsuccessfully attempting to cross into the United States, Dec 1.

(MARIO TAMA/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Mexico's new government is unlikely to make significant changes to the country's immigration policy.
  • Seeking U.S. and Canadian support for financial assistance programs designed to curb immigration at source, Mexico aims to promote stability in Central America but will encounter opposition from a White House focused on border security.
  • The risk of U.S. backlash will make it more difficult for Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to pursue a plan to offer more humanitarian visas to Central Americans.
  • Creating more opportunities for migrants to enter the country could force economically disadvantaged Mexicans to compete with Central Americans in the country's informal economy.

Mexico has a new government going into 2019, but the country's approach to migration will remain largely the same. New Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's approach to illegal migration will be similar to his predecessors, meaning Mexican authorities will continue detaining and deporting tens of thousands of migrants from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador each month. Lopez Obrador will also press the United States and Canada to help fund social programs in Central America designed to offer citizens greater economic opportunities. And maintaining the status quo on immigration allows Mexico's president to avoid a wider political confrontation with Washington....

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