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What Happens When a Major Mexican Cartel Leader Falls?

Scott Stewart

VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor

Sep 25, 2018 | 08:30 GMT

Mexican soldiers escort Oscar Pozos Jimenez (L) and Jose Serna Padilla, an alleged member of the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, in Guadalajara on March 18, 2012. If the CJNG fractures after its leader is killed or captured, it could spark a new round of violence.

(STR/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

As the most powerful and aggressive cartel in Mexico today, the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) will continue to drive record levels of violence as it battles rivals for control around the country.
Because of the high levels of violence perpetrated by the CJNG, Mexican authorities will ultimately capture or kill the cartel's leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes – also known as "El Mencho."
The removal of Oseguera Cervantes, however, is likely to provoke more violence if the CJNG implodes into a host of competing smaller criminal groups.

The attack was almost cinematic: Just over a week ago, gunmen dressed as mariachi musicians shot dead five people at a restaurant in Mexico City's Plaza Garibaldi, a place of attraction for locals and tourists alike. The latest violence to grab the headlines illustrates how cartel figures are now dragging violence with them into the tourist areas and upscale neighborhoods they frequent and inhabit. At the same time, it shows how the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) has expanded its presence throughout the length and breadth of Mexico. As a result of the group's atrocities, CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (El Mencho) has become public enemy number one. But amid the violence, the bigger question for Mexican authorities is not how to capture or kill Oseguera Cervantes, but a far more distressing one: What happens the day after? ...

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