ASSESSMENTS

What If Brexit Happened Without an Exit Deal?

Jul 30, 2018 | 09:00 GMT

EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier (R) and Britain's Brexit Minister Dominic Raab hold a joint press conference after their meeting at the European Commission in Brussels on July 26, 2018.

British and EU negotiators have encountered a number of sticking points in talks over what the relationship between the entities will look like after Brexit. If those differences cannot be worked out, there's a possibility that the United Kingdom will depart the union with no deal in place, leading to a host of complications.

(JOHN THYS/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • If the March deadline for the United Kingdom to exit the European Union arrives without a Withdrawal Agreement between both parties, Brexit would happen with no transition period, forcing businesses to immediately adjust to the new rules defining EU-UK relations.
  • Under a "no-deal" scenario, British exporters would face EU tariffs that are low on average, but high in specific sectors like automobiles and agriculture.
  • The strongest economic effect of a no-deal scenario would be felt in the United Kingdom and its close trade partners, like Ireland, the Netherlands and Belgium.
  • Without a deal, London and Brussels would probably arrange temporary agreements to minimize disruptions while they continued to negotiate.

Negotiators for the United Kingdom and the European Union are racing the clock to reach agreements on a long list of remaining issues before the United Kingdom formally leaves the bloc on March 29, 2019. Ongoing discussions are focused on a Withdrawal Agreement that would establish the legal terms of the United Kingdom's exit and a political declaration outlining the general framework for future ties between the European Union and the United Kingdom. London and Brussels would ideally like both documents to be finalized in time to be signed during a European Council summit in October. But negotiators are still far apart on both deals, opening the door for a no-deal scenario, in which Brexit would happen without any prearranged conditions. If that happened, the economies and the political and institutional systems of both would have to cope with a number of possibly disruptive effects....

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