GUIDANCE

What India's Elections Mean for Jammu and Kashmir

Jun 29, 2018 | 09:00 GMT

Protesters attending the funeral of a man who was killed during previous clashes with Indian security forces, battle police in Srinagar, Kashmir, on June 2. The growing unrest in Jammu and Kashmir could lead to stricter security measures by New Delhi.

(TAUSEEF MUSTAFA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is focusing on his 2019 re-election campaign, in which he will emphasize security over dialogue in his approach to the conflict in Jammu and Kashmir.
This means there will probably be an increase in violence between the insurgency and the Indian Armed Forces in the Kashmir Valley.
The relationship between nuclear archrivals India and Pakistan will thus remain tense and unmoving until at least after the May 2019 Indian elections.

India's embattled northernmost state of Jammu and Kashmir has entered a new phase of turmoil. The region has long had an active secessionist movement; currently, its law and order situation is deteriorating and it is making lackluster progress on infrastructure development. On June 19, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) pulled out of its three-year-old alliance with the People's Democratic Party (PDP) due to concerns over the state's situation. Then on June 20, Indian President Ram Nath Kovind approved governor's rule in the state, marking the fourth time Jammu and Kashmir has come under the control of New Delhi since 2008. This move will not only diminish the prospect of dialogue between the Indian government and Jammu and Kashmir's separatist movement, but it will also make less space for India and its rival Pakistan to engage in relationship normalization talks....

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