What to Make of Growing Iran-Azerbaijan Tensions

While a direct military conflict remains unlikely, Iran-Azerbaijan tensions are poised to grow as Tehran pushes to fill the gap left by Russia in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia -- altering the balance of power in the region. Concerns of a potential military conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan are rising amid the former's growing involvement in the latter's enduring conflict with Armenia. In late October, Iran began to conduct military exercises along the Iran-Azerbaijan border for the second time since the end of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Key to the decision to conduct these exercises has been Iran's growing alignment with Armenia on political and military grounds, which has caused tensions to flare between Tehran and Azerbaijan in recent weeks....