ASSESSMENTS

What’s at Stake as Ethiopia Barrels Toward Civil War

Nov 20, 2020 | 21:04 GMT

Members of the Amhara militia fighting alongside Ethiopian forces in Tigray ride on the back of a truck in Gondar, Ethiopia, on Nov. 8, 2020.

Members of the Amhara militia fighting alongside Ethiopian forces in Tigray ride on the back of a truck in Gondar, Ethiopia, on Nov. 8, 2020.

(EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP via Getty Images)

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appears unwilling to abandon his offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) without fully exhausting a military response. As the conflict enters its third week with no end in sight, the offensive risks both damaging Ethiopia’s attractiveness as an investment destination and escalating into a significant regional conflict. A protracted and deadly conflict with human rights violations risks undermining Abiy’s reputation as a liberal-minded and reform-oriented leader following his historic peace agreement with neighboring Eritrea in September 2018, which has since boosted Ethiopia’s attractiveness to foreign investors. ...

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