While Russia's winter offensive is unlikely to gain enough ground to significantly alter the trajectory of the war, it could complicate Ukraine's offensive in the spring, the success of which will depend on Western weapons deliveries. The Institute for the Study of War, an independent U.S.-based research group, claimed on Feb. 8 that ''Russian forces [had] begun their next major offensive'' in Ukraine, citing ''the commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations'' around the eastern town of Kreminna in Luhansk (one of the territories that comprise the Donbas region). NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg then appeared to confirm this assessment on Feb. 13 by saying ''the reality is that we have [already] seen the start'' of a renewed Russian thrust into Ukraine. High-ranking Ukrainian and Western officials have also indicated that Russia is preparing to launch a larger-scale attack, possibly in the coming days....
