Russia's war against Ukraine entered a new phase at the beginning of April following its withdrawal of forces from northern Ukraine and the repositioning of units to the southeast for a renewed offensive in the country's eastern Donbas region. Moscow has put peace talks with Kyiv on ice, claiming Ukrainian and Russian negotiators had come to an impasse after allegedly hashing out the rough contours of a cease-fire agreement in Istanbul on March 29. The future of negotiations or any diplomatic settlement will largely depend on what happens on the battlefield in the coming weeks, as Russia seeks to seize or encircle the portion of the Donbas still under the Ukrainian government's control and neutralize as many Ukrainian forces as possible. While negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will likely continue regardless, against this backdrop, the success of such talks and the near-term outlook of the conflict will hinge on the following...
