What's Next for the South Caucasus After Azerbaijan's Seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh

Sep 20, 2023 | 21:25 GMT

Armenians protest outside the government building in central Yerevan to urge the government to respond to the Azerbaijani military operation launched against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region on Sept. 19, 2023.

(Photo by KAREN MINASYAN/AFP via Getty Images)

Azerbaijan's capture of Nagorno-Karabakh will increase Baku's leverage over Armenia amid ongoing peace negotiations and decrease Russia's influence in the South Caucasus over time. On Sept. 19, Azerbaijan launched a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, a region governed by Armenians within Azerbaijan's territory. The next day, the authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh capitulated to Azerbaijan's demands, disbanding their armed forces and allowing soldiers and local civilians to leave the region via humanitarian corridors. Members of the armed forces of Armenia also allegedly left the region, though Armenia's Defense Ministry reiterated its claim that there are no Armenian military personnel in Nagorno-Karabakh, as they withdrew from the region in 2021 in line with the November 2020 cease-fire....

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