ASSESSMENTS

Where Is the Conflict in Eastern Congo Headed?

Apr 23, 2024 | 19:15 GMT

Congolese soldiers sit in a military vehicle in Kamanyola, a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 28, 2024.
Congolese soldiers sit in a military vehicle in Kamanyola, a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 28, 2024.

(GLODY MURHABAZI/AFP via Getty Images)

The continuation of intense fighting in eastern Congo could prompt a military escalation between Congo and Rwanda that would threaten to splinter Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi's ruling coalition, while providing opportunities for unrest to emerge in the country's mineral-rich Katanga region. On April 1, President Tshisekedi appointed Judith Suminwa Tuluka as prime minister. Tuluka's appointment comes as Tshisekedi secured reelection for a second term in Congo's contested December 2023 presidential election, which most outside observers concluded was marred with significant irregularities. But while official results saw Tshisekedi secure the presidency in a landslide, his Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) party only secured 69 out of 500 seats in the legislative elections, making Tshisekedi heavily reliant on other parties within his Sacred Union coalition, which regroups over 35 parties, to govern. In this context, Tshisekedi's appointment of Tuluka -- a UDPS member who is widely considered to be a...

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