Reflections

Why a Global Economic Downshift, No Matter How Small, Matters

Jan 24, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, delivers an update of her institution's outlook for the global economy in 2019.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde gives a press conference on Jan. 21, 2019, regarding the IMF's World Economic Outlook ahead of the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. 

(FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images)

Recently, a number of signs have emerged that the global economy, which had been running hot over the past few years, is cooling off. One of the latest comes in the form of a quarterly report from the International Monetary Fund, which has lowered global economic growth projections by 0.2 percent for 2019 and 0.1 percent for 2020. A 0.4 percent downshift in growth expectations over a six-month period marks a significant adjustment. As Stratfor laid out in its 2019 Annual Forecast, geopolitical risks abound for the global economy, a forecast that is running true thus far. But despite the indications and the continued adjustments in the IMF outlook, Stratfor still believes that the global economy will avoid a crisis. Although "there is cause for concern," as we put it, we do expect a soft landing for the economy in 2019. Nevertheless, certain regions face a heightened risk of economic...

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