ASSESSMENTS

Will Israel's Shift Right Slow the Warming With Its Arab Neighbors?

May 8, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

Israeli Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz, second from left, stands during the opening ceremony of the IRU World Congress, a regional transportation conference, in Muscat, Oman, on Nov. 7, 2018.

Israeli Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz, second from left, attends a 2018 regional transportation conference in Muscat, Oman. Many Gulf Arab states have reached out to Israel in recent years; the election of a new right-wing Israeli government will test those relations.

(MOHAMMED MAHJOUB/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Each Gulf Arab state's strategic realignment with Israel will be affected by the election of a new right-wing government in Israel, but to varying degrees, often based on domestic constraints.
  • No Gulf Arab state will abandon its outreach to Israel, but those states more affected by potent domestic or international constraints, like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Kuwait, will likely minimize or reduce relations to avoid a public backlash.
  • The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain will be more likely to maintain their trajectory and will be more able to reshape Gulf Arab political and diplomatic norms related to Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government will likely make a return to power this month or next -- and, in doing so, will test the Gulf Arab states that until now have been pivoting toward closer relations with Israel. As this new nationalist government pursues policies that challenge traditional Gulf interests, those relations will be questioned....

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