ASSESSMENTS

Will Political Imperatives Reverse Turkey's Tighter Monetary Policy?

Jul 19, 2024 | 15:06 GMT

Turkish lira bills over a financial chart background.
Turkish lira bills over a financial chart background.

(Photo by MicroStockHub via Getty Images)

Turkey's technocratic economic strategy will likely continue to slow inflation in the medium term, but Ankara will be tempted to politicize the central bank as the 2028 general election nears, potentially returning Turkey to economic instability and risking a power shift. Turkey's inflation slowed for the first time in seven months in June 2024, declining to 71% year on year from 75% in May. The consumer price index also slowed from 3.4% in May to 1.4% in June, another sign of cooling inflation. At the news, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek declared, "The age of disinflation has begun." This change is the result of the technocratic economic strategy Simsek has overseen since taking over as finance minister in July 2023, when he was given a mandate to break the cycle of inflation driving down the value of the country's currency, increasing the costs of imports and eroding the standard of living....

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