ASSESSMENTS

Will the Uprising in Venezuela Affect the Country's Oil Production?

Apr 30, 2019 | 21:33 GMT

A bus burns near La Carlota military base in Caracas, Venezuela, during clashes between opposition protesters and Venezuelan soldiers on April 30, 2019.

A bus burns near La Carlota military base in Caracas, Venezuela. The longer the uprising that began April 30 in Venezuela lasts, the more it risks disrupting the country's oil production.

(FEDERICO PARRA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • A prolonged military uprising against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro risks disrupting Venezuela's oil production because dissident forces will see the country's export and production infrastructure as a key pressure point against the government.
  • The ultimate success or failure of the uprising will depend on whether key military units in the cities of Maracay and Caracas turn on the Maduro government. If those units turn on Maduro quickly, action against oil export and production infrastructure will become less likely.
  • Factors such as the distance to oil-producing regions and personnel constraints will limit the uprising's ability to threaten oil infrastructure. If opposition leader Juan Guaido has limited personnel at his disposal, he will focus the regime change efforts on Caracas and other major cities.

The attempted military uprising in Venezuela in support of opposition leader Juan Guaido carries with it significant risks for Venezuelan oil production. The uncertainty over how many military units support Guaido and how far they will go to pressure the government of President Nicolas Maduro will be the main risk in the coming days. Though virtually all known military movements have taken place in the cities of Caracas and Maracay -- far away from Venezuela's extensive oil production and export infrastructure -- the country's oil production could become a key factor as the uprising develops....

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