Will the Uprising in Venezuela Affect the Country's Oil Production?
Apr 30, 2019 | 21:33 GMT
(FEDERICO PARRA/AFP/Getty Images)
- A prolonged military uprising against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro risks disrupting Venezuela's oil production because dissident forces will see the country's export and production infrastructure as a key pressure point against the government.
- The ultimate success or failure of the uprising will depend on whether key military units in the cities of Maracay and Caracas turn on the Maduro government. If those units turn on Maduro quickly, action against oil export and production infrastructure will become less likely.
- Factors such as the distance to oil-producing regions and personnel constraints will limit the uprising's ability to threaten oil infrastructure. If opposition leader Juan Guaido has limited personnel at his disposal, he will focus the regime change efforts on Caracas and other major cities.