The presence of armed drones is a reality of the modern battlefield, but only a very limited group of countries has the technological ability to produce them or the military capacity to operate them. The United States once held the edge in drone development and use, but as more countries gain access to the technology, armed drones have entered a new stage of proliferation. From the perspective of the United States and others, this proliferation is dangerous. Attempts to curb the spread of armed drones are becoming more difficult now that the United States is no longer their sole developer. China, in particular, has grown as a global exporter of unmanned combat systems, and other countries such as Russia, Israel, Turkey and South Korea, are likely close behind.
Even less-developed militaries now typically have some capability to deploy unmanned platforms for surveillance and reconnaissance. So, too, do non-state actors, including terrorist groups, although they are limited to commercial models. However, the deployment of dedicated combat drones carrying offensive weapons systems has progressed at a reduced rate. Still, China, building on its success in producing commercial drones, is known to have exported armed drones to Pakistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Of these buyers, only Iraq, Pakistan and Nigeria have documented the use of armed drones on the battlefield. And once the Russian military-industrial complex begins to export armed drones, the proliferation of remote combat systems to such countries could increase.
The policies of the United States, which remains the most advanced developer and operator of armed drone systems, essentially have limited Washington's influence on the use of the technology by other countries. Thus far, it has only sold the systems to Italy and the United Kingdom. The vacuum left by U.S. export restrictions has been rapidly filled by China. And as more countries gain export capabilities, they likely will follow Beijing's lead. The willing exporters will be in a position to have a bigger influence on the application of armed drone technology. In fact, the willingness of China and Russia not to limit sales of armed drones puts them in a much stronger position than the United States to dominate global exports in the field.
But even though the United States may not be able to establish itself as the main global provider of armed drone systems in terms of quantity, it still maintains the technological edge in the sector. The Chinese drone models currently being exported, the CH-3 and CH-4 systems, are based heavily on the designs of the U.S. MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper drones. The technology that the U.S. drones use, especially the software and control systems that integrate their avionics, sensors and weapon systems, provide an advantage over cruder Chinese systems. Still, more advanced systems have already been developed for use by the Chinese military and could eventually start appearing on the export market as well.
So far, few countries have access to the technology, and even fewer have used the systems to carry out strikes. But once their proliferation becomes widespread, the effects of armed drones will become even more noticeable on the battlefield.
