In Yemen, territorial advances by UAE-backed forces will deepen fragmentation within the anti-Houthi camp, triggering violence that will undermine stalled ceasefire efforts. Despite Emirati hopes, a near-term push toward southern independence is unlikely, but renewed instability would encourage the Houthis to launch their own offensive. On Dec. 14, the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) announced its rejection of Saudi mediation efforts aimed at securing the withdrawal of STC forces from the provinces of Hadramawt and al-Mahra, reaffirming it would maintain its deployments in the areas. The statement came after a Saudi-Emirati military delegation arrived in the port city of Aden on Dec. 12 to discuss steps to de-escalate tensions in southern Yemen following the STC's claim that it had consolidated control across much of the south of the country and that its forces were present throughout the broader Aden province, the seat of Yemen's Saudi-backed internationally recognized government (IRG), following...
