The success of a rebel campaign in northern Yemen is threatening to destabilize the already weak and overwhelmed government in Sanaa. After capturing the city of Amran, a mere 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the capital, in early July, the rebels from the al-Houthi tribe are in their strongest position yet. The Yemeni government is developing plans to divide the country into six federal regions, and the rebels believe this is their chance to claim territory for the future bargaining.
In 2004, the al-Houthi tribe, a member of the Zaidi branch of Shiism, led an insurgency from its mountainous territory in the north against Saudi-backed Wahhabi and Salafist tribesmen and the Yemeni military, both of which the al-Houthis believed were encroaching on territory that historically belonged to followers of the Ziadi the order. Five more bouts of fighting over six years failed to produce any changes on the ground.
By 2011, the tribe had become strong enough to take advantage of the power vacuum in Yemen created after President Ali Abdullah Saleh's ouster earlier that year. It captured Saada city, installed a governor and began collecting taxes and directing the local government. It also began to openly contest tribal control of adjacent territory in al-Jawf, Hajja and Amran provinces.
In addition to fighting the al-Houthi tribe, Yemeni armed forces are busy containing al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's activities, which are spreading from the country's southeast. Also, southern secessionists are threatening the country's unity, and tribal militants are threatening its infrastructure. Frequent militant attacks on energy facilities have hurt oil and natural gas production, and protests have grown over water, fuel and electricity shortages.
The central government is nearly powerless to fend off the rebels; its forces are already stretched thin. Neighboring Saudi Arabia has intervened in Yemen before and still supports Sunni tribes in the north, but the risk of inciting a Shiite backlash or creating space for jihadists to move in could deter another intervention. Despite Saudi assistance, Yemen's internal pressures have put it in its most fragile state since the 2011 uprising.
