Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE, Stratfor
MIN READAug 11, 2022 | 21:08 GMT
A partial view shows a collapsed UNESCO-listed building in the old city of the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Aug. 10 following heavy rains.
(MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Yemen's warring parties have agreed to another extension of a now four-month-old cease-fire -- opening the door, ever so slightly, to the possibility of at least freezing the war-torn country's seven-year conflict. The factors compelling the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels to continue prolonging their truce -- namely, waning foreign support, fuel and food insecurity, and the lack of a clear way for either side to achieve their military objectives -- are unlikely to change anytime soon. But even if this results in a sustained period of reduced fighting, real and lasting peace in Yemen -- while not impossible -- remains improbable. And that's because a frozen Yemeni war would likely resemble the unstable conflicts in Gaza and Syria, where periods of violence alternate with long swathes of relative calm....