Yemen's Persistent Humanitarian Crisis

Yemen is in a state of flux. The al-Houthi rebels retain control of the capital, President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi has retreated to the southern city of Aden, and the exact future of the nation is uncertain. There are growing indications that Saudi Arabia and its neighbors are trying to negotiate a more formal split in Yemen, as Riyadh struggles to maintain stability in the country. Apart from the political split and the details of the conflict, the general population faces a difficult road ahead, and the humanitarian crisis will only be exacerbated by a worsening water scarcity crisis; a faltering economy overly reliant on foreign aid, food imports and declining energy revenue; and an unstable security situation.

Assuming the country eventually splits into two separate nations, North Yemen will certainly face the brunt of the economic and security crises. Most foreign aid will follow Hadi to the south in a split, giving Iran the opportunity to increase its influence in the north. However, even after reportedly giving the al-Houthis an economic aid package in recent days, Iran will not have the means to handle the growing humanitarian crisis in the region, and Saudi Arabia will be unable to choose sides. Riyadh will be forced to take the lead in stemming the humanitarian crisis on the northern side of the new border while it supports the new government in the south.