GRAPHICS

Zones of Control in Mogadishu

Oct 12, 2010 | 18:02 GMT

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(Stratfor)

The Ugandan-led African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeeping force has been making gains in the Somali capital in recent weeks, pushing its zone of control as far north as Mogadishu's former military hospital. From here, AMISOM, a 7,200-strong force mandated to protect Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) from Islamist insurgent groups al Shabaab and Hizbul Islam, plans next to target the Bakara Market. Bakara, which serves as al Shabaab’s headquarters in the city, has long been off limits to the TFG and is the frequent target of AMISOM shelling. An unconfirmed rumor of a split within the al Shabaab leadership has led to reports that over 1,000 of the group’s fighters have left Mogadishu in recent weeks, something upon which both the Ugandan and Somali governments want to capitalize. Their aim is to demonstrate continued territorial gains to the international community in the hope that AMISOM will come to be seen as a capable military force able to stand up to al Shabaab. Only then will actors like the United States and the United Nations Security Council consider a dramatic increase in an investment with AMISOM.