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The European Union and the Mercosur bloc of South America's largest economies are expected to reach a final agreement for a free trade deal during a meeting between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on the sidelines of the U.N. Climate Change Conference, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 30.

EU, Americas: EU and Mercosur Countries Near Final Deal for Free Trade Agreement

Argentina's President-elect Javier Milei said his government will cut spending by 15% of the country's gross domestic product in 2024, with the goal of reducing the fiscal deficit to zero that year, Clarin reported on Nov. 21.

Argentina: President-Elect Promises Unprecedented Spending Cuts

Patricia Bullrich, the third-place finisher in the first round of Argentina's presidential elections on Oct. 22, said her supporters should vote for the libertarian frontrunner Javier Milei in the Nov. 19 runoff between Milei and Economy Minister Sergio Massa, the Financial Times reported on Oct. 25.

Argentina: Bullrich Tells Supporters to Vote for Milei, Likely Fracturing Her Coalition

Argentina's Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa won 36.7% of the vote in the first round of the country's presidential election on Oct. 22, followed by libertarian candidate Javier Milei with 30% and conservative candidate Patricia Bullrich with 23.8%, La Nacion reported on Oct. 23.

Argentina: Peronist and Libertarian to Compete in Presidential Runoff Amid Economic Uncertainty

The Argentine peso's value dropped to a record low of 1,020 pesos per U.S. dollar in informal markets, a gap of more than 160% with the official rate, Buenos Aires Times reported on Oct. 10.

Argentina: Peso Devaluation Accelerates as Economic Uncertainty Intensifies

Argentine Economy Minister Sergio Massa, the presidential nominee of the Union por la Patria coalition, said on Oct. 1 that if elected he would seek to form a unity government with Patricia Bullrich's Juntos Por el Cambio, members of frontrunner Javier Milei's Libertarian Party and other minor political parties, the Financial Times reported on Oct. 2.

Argentina: Massa Pledges to Form Unity Government in Play to Defeat Libertarian Milei

Paraguay's President Santiago Pena said the European Union must finalize a trade deal with Mercosur by Dec. 6, or the South American bloc will walk away from negotiations and instead negotiate with Asian countries, the Financial Times reported on Sept. 24.

EU, South America: Mercosur Gives EU Ultimatum to Finalize Trade Talks by December

Diplomats and members of the European Parliament stated anonymously that splits between members of Mercosur, the South American customs union and trade bloc, are preventing the passage of the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement (FTA), Reuters reported on Sept. 11.

EU, South America: Mercosur's Divisions Dampen Prospect of EU Trade Deal

Assessments

Argentine President-elect Javier Milei (center) speaks to supporters, accompanied by his running mate Victoria Villarruel (left) and his girlfriend Fatima Florez (right) in Buenos Aires, Argentina, after winning the presidential runoff on Nov. 19, 2023. 

Military & Security

Milei will struggle to enact his pledged structural reforms, like dollarization, due to a lack of support in Congress, which will likely see him instead pursue unpopular spending cuts that could destabilize his new government.

Argentina Has Elected a Libertarian President. What Now? 

Democratic Republic of the Congo

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The presidential candidate for the Union por la Patria party, Sergio Massa (R), speaks next to the presidential candidate for the La Libertad Avanza party, Javier Milei, on Nov. 12, 2023, during a presidential debate in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Argentina will hold the second round of its presidential election Nov. 19.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Argentina's Presidential Runoff, the Registration Deadline for the Taiwanese Presidential Race

Argentine presidential candidates Javier Milei (left) and Sergio Massa taking part in a debate in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Nov. 12, 2023.

Argentina will continue to face high inflation and deteriorating living conditions regardless of who wins the Nov. 19 vote, but a victory by libertarian candidate Javier Milei would see greater volatility.

Previewing Argentina's Presidential Runoff

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People attend a rally in support of Israel in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Oct. 22, 2023. 

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Anger over the conflict could temporarily strain Israel and the U.S.'s relations with left-wing governments in the region, while countries with large Jewish or Arab populations may see more security-related incidents.

Latin America's Response to the Israel-Hamas War 

Egypt

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An Israeli tank on Oct. 20, 2023, at Kibbutz Beeri near the Israeli border with the Gaza Strip. igh-level representatives from the Gulf and other Arab countries, Turkey and Europe plus U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres among others will meet Oct. 21 in Cairo to discuss the ongoing Israel-Hamas War and humanitarian crisis.

The Weekly Rundown: A Summit in Egypt as Israel Prepares to Invade Gaza, Argentines Head to the Polls

Electoral material is pictured at a polling station during primary elections in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Aug. 13, 2023.

Regardless of which candidate wins Argentina's presidential election, inflation is set to rise.

What to Expect After Argentina's Presidential Election

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On Geopolitics

A supporter of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei, who has pledged to dollarize the country's economy, holds up a gigant fake U.S. dollar bill with Milei's face on it during a rally in Buenos Aires on Sept. 25, 2023. 

Argentina's history casts significant doubt on policymakers' ability to maintain fiscal discipline if its next president moves to replace the peso with the U.S. dollar as the country's national currency. 

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 2

This illustration shows a $100 banknote on top of Argentine pesos in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Oct. 10, 2023.

Argentina's potential shift toward dollarization will come with its fair share of economic constraints.

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 1

Far-right presidential candidate Javier Milei waves after delivering a speech at his headquarters in Buenos Aires on Aug. 13, 2023. 

Javier Milei, who's promised to overhaul Argentina's economic and political systems, unexpectedly came out on top in the Aug. 13 primary.

A Far-Right Candidate Takes the Lead in Argentina's Presidential Race

Niger

China

Poland

A political demonstration on June 20, 2023, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Argentine Primary Elections, the Possible ECOWAS Intervention in Niger

Leaders of the summit between the European Union and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) walk for a press conference on July 18, 2023, in Brussels, Belgium. From left to right are European Council President Charles Michel, Argentine President Alberto Fernandez, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves, who is also the current president of CELAC.

A summit revives talks over an EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, but political constraints and protectionism stand in the way of a final deal.

The Obstacles Facing an EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Anti-government protesters hold up the Argentine flag during a rally outside the presidential palace in Buenos Aires on July 9, 2022.

By offering a glimpse into the country's political future, the outcome of next month's vote could spook markets, spur mass protests and potentially even trigger a bank run.

Previewing Argentina's Presidential Primary

Argentina is one of the most resource-rich countries in the world and faces few immediate external threats. The South American country is bound in the north by the rivers of the Rio de la Plata drainage basin, in the west by the Andes Mountains, and in the east by the Atlantic Ocean. Its core territory is the fertile Humid Pampas region, which includes the populous capital city of Buenos Aires. This area is the heart of Argentina’s large agricultural sector, supported by soybeans, wheat, corn and yerba mate. The areas west and south of this core area much more arid and rural but are rich in oil and natural gas. The Andes Mountains, towering to nearly 7,000 meters (23,000 feet), form a natural barrier between Argentina and Chile and protect Argentina's western flank. This protection adds to the natural protection afforded all of South America by its geographic isolation. The only local threat to Argentina is Brazil's growth, which poses a risk to Argentina's control over the all-important Rio de la Plata drainage basin. Argentina's biggest security concern has always been any possible blockade of this basin or of the Port of Buenos Aires, located at the mouth of the river. However, South America's relative isolation and Brazil’s historical weakness have protected post-Colonial Argentina. From its secure position, Argentina has been able to develop the strong agriculture and energy export markets that have made the country wealthy. However, its intrinsic security has also allowed Argentina to become overly focused on domestic issues and has contributed to its failure to develop stable institutions. 

SITUATION REPORTS

EU, Americas: EU and Mercosur Countries Near Final Deal for Free Trade Agreement

Argentina: President-Elect Promises Unprecedented Spending Cuts

Argentina: Bullrich Tells Supporters to Vote for Milei, Likely Fracturing Her Coalition

Argentina: Peronist and Libertarian to Compete in Presidential Runoff Amid Economic Uncertainty

Argentina: Peso Devaluation Accelerates as Economic Uncertainty Intensifies

Argentina: Massa Pledges to Form Unity Government in Play to Defeat Libertarian Milei

EU, South America: Mercosur Gives EU Ultimatum to Finalize Trade Talks by December

EU, South America: Mercosur's Divisions Dampen Prospect of EU Trade Deal

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