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Argentina

A woman pays for fruits and vegetables in Argentine pesos at a market in Buenos Aires on Feb. 10, 2023.

Economics

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The risk of hyperinflation will increase as Argentina's weak and divided government struggles to bring prices down and restore trust in the peso.

Argentina Braces for More Economic Pain

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Chilean President Gabriel Boric (right) and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (left) pose after holding a joint press conference at the Palacio de La Moneda in Santiago, Chile, on Jan. 29, 2023. 

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

To reduce its reliance on Chinese-made batteries, Germany is seeking to increase its presence in Latin America's ''Lithium Triangle.''

In Search of Lithium, Germany Eyes Partnerships With Chile and Argentina

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On Geopolitics

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A digital illustration shows the flags of Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Chile and Peru. 

The rise of left-wing governments in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru is largely the result of growing anti-establishment sentiment fueled by economic volatility.

Is Latin America Experiencing Another Leftist Wave?

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2022 Annual Forecast as 2023 Approaches

Anelo, Neuquen province, Argentina, on Nov. 26, 2019, in the Vaca Muerta formation. Oil and gas producers in the Vaca Muerta shale formation are enjoying rapid growth, but political, infrastructure and economic challenges will limit Buenos Aires' goals.

Oil and gas producers in the Vaca Muerta shale formation are enjoying rapid growth, but political, infrastructure and economic challenges will limit Buenos Aires' goals.

Argentina's Shale Reach Exceeds Its Grasp

Protesters wave an Argentine flag at an anti-government rally in Buenos Aires on July 9, 2022. 

Social Issues

From a geographic, demographic and strategic standpoint, Argentina should be one of the world’s most prosperous countries. But political corruption and clientelism have crippled its economic development.

The Geopolitics of Argentina: The Superpower That Wasn’t

Snapshots

Argentina's finance minister Martin Guzman (center) shakes hands with a member of the country’s Congress in Buenos Aires before briefing legislators on the government’s new deal with the International Monetary Fund on March 7, 2022. 

The backloading of payments and fiscal consolidation measures increases the likelihood of Buenos Aires needing additional debt restructuring after 2026.

The Terms of Argentina's Latest IMF Deal Ensure It Won't Be the Last

Guidance

Ukrainian tanks approach the front lines with Russian forces Feb. 25, 2022, in the Lugansk region of Ukraine. Conflict in Ukraine will continue next week as more Russian troops positioned around Ukraine move in. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Russia's War in Ukraine Intensifies, China's 'Two Sessions' Commence

The Ukraine Conflict

Argentine President Alberto Fernandez listens as the country’s finance minister explains the proposed payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the debt restructuring during a meeting with government officials and businessmen in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Jan. 5, 2022. 

The announcement of an "understanding" brings Buenos Aires closer to unlocking more IMF funds, but internal debates on both sides could still derail negotiations. 

Argentina-IMF Debt Talks Make Progress, but Risks Remain

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A compilation of four photos (from left to right) shows a COVID-19 vaccine, U.S. President Joe Biden, the logo of the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei, and a stock market sign. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting the events of the past year.

Grading Our 2021 Annual Forecast as 2022 Approaches

Argentine President Alberto Fernandez looks down from the stage at a Frente de Todos event in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Nov. 14, 2021. 

The loss of his leftist coalition’s legislative majority will haunt Fernandez by disrupting policymaking and exacerbating tensions with his vice president.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to Argentina’s Peronist President

The Casa Rosada government palace on Sept. 16, 2021, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Expanded populist measures will make it harder for the country to reduce its massive inflation, improve the business climate or renegotiate its IMF deal.

Expanded populist measures will make it harder for the country to reduce its massive inflation, improve the business climate or renegotiate its IMF deal.

Argentina's Political Crisis Will Give Populism a Boost

Argentina suggested that it could expedite Brazilian imports if Brazil adopts a new credit system to conduct business in reais as opposed to the dollar as Argentina's Central Bank dollar reserves run low, Reuters reported on May 3.

Argentina: Government May Fast-Track Brazilian Imports in Exchange for Use of the Real

Belize

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Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

The leaders of Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Honduras, Mexico, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Venezuela met virtually and agreed to take steps to facilitate commercial trade, La Jornada reported April 5.

Latin America: Left-Wing Governments Ally to Reduce Food Inflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered the foreign reserves accumulation target set in Argentina's $44 billion program in light of a recent drought impacting cereal exports -- a crucial source of foreign currency for the country -- Reuters reported on April 1.

Argentina: IMF Lowers Foreign Reserves Target Amid Drought

Argentina's economy minister entered talks with state-owned entities to discuss the impacts of a forthcoming decree forcing the companies to give up their dollar bonds and place a portion of their peso-denominated bonds on the open market, La Nacion reported on March 22.

Argentina: Government Pushes State-Owned Entities to Surrender Dollar Bonds

Argentine Economy Minister Sergio Massa announced a temporary state intervention in energy distribution company Edesur, which is privately owned by Italian company Enel, Deutsche Welle reported on March 20.

Argentina: Government Intervenes in Private Energy Company

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador stated that the leftist governments of Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Cuba would join Mexico in launching a joint plan to curb food inflation, namely by removing tariffs to reduce the price of food items, Reuters reported March 2.

Latin America: Leftist Governments Push to Reduce Food Tariffs

Four Argentine senators announced on Feb. 22 that they were leaving the ruling Everybody's Front (Frente de Todos) coalition to form a new bloc called Federal Unity, the Buenos Aires Times reported Feb. 23.

Argentina: Senators Leave Government Alliance, Form New Bloc

Argentine Economy Minister Sergio Massa announced that the country's Central Bank will buy back $1 billion of external debt on behalf of the Treasury Department in an effort to improve Argentina's access to capital markets, La Nacion reported Jan. 18.

Argentina: Central Bank to Buy Back $1 Billion in Overseas Debt

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Argentina is one of the most resource-rich countries in the world and faces few immediate external threats. The South American country is bound in the north by the rivers of the Rio de la Plata drainage basin, in the west by the Andes Mountains, and in the east by the Atlantic Ocean. Its core territory is the fertile Humid Pampas region, which includes the populous capital city of Buenos Aires. This area is the heart of Argentina’s large agricultural sector, supported by soybeans, wheat, corn and yerba mate. The areas west and south of this core area much more arid and rural but are rich in oil and natural gas. The Andes Mountains, towering to nearly 7,000 meters (23,000 feet), form a natural barrier between Argentina and Chile and protect Argentina's western flank. This protection adds to the natural protection afforded all of South America by its geographic isolation. The only local threat to Argentina is Brazil's growth, which poses a risk to Argentina's control over the all-important Rio de la Plata drainage basin. Argentina's biggest security concern has always been any possible blockade of this basin or of the Port of Buenos Aires, located at the mouth of the river. However, South America's relative isolation and Brazil’s historical weakness have protected post-Colonial Argentina. From its secure position, Argentina has been able to develop the strong agriculture and energy export markets that have made the country wealthy. However, its intrinsic security has also allowed Argentina to become overly focused on domestic issues and has contributed to its failure to develop stable institutions. 

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SITUATION REPORTS

Argentina: Government May Fast-Track Brazilian Imports in Exchange for Use of the Real

Latin America: Left-Wing Governments Ally to Reduce Food Inflation

Argentina: IMF Lowers Foreign Reserves Target Amid Drought

Argentina: Government Pushes State-Owned Entities to Surrender Dollar Bonds

Argentina: Government Intervenes in Private Energy Company

Latin America: Leftist Governments Push to Reduce Food Tariffs

Argentina: Senators Leave Government Alliance, Form New Bloc

Argentina: Central Bank to Buy Back $1 Billion in Overseas Debt

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