Argentina

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Politics

The Argentine Senate approved three bills immediately increasing pensions by 7.2% in nominal terms, securing resources to provinces and a relief fund to Bahia Blanca, a city hit by floods earlier in the year, La Nacion reported July 10.

Argentina: Senate Approves Bill to Increase Pensions, Serving Blow to Milei 

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South America's Mercosur trade bloc and the European Free Trade Association, or EFTA, finalized a free trade agreement that will cover 97% of shipments between the entities, Reuters reported on July 2. 

South America, Europe: Mercosur- EFTA Free Trade Agreement Finalized Amid U.S. Protectionism

A U.S. judge ordered Argentina to give up its 51% stake in oil and gas company YPF as a partial payment in a $16.1 billion trial, La Nacion reported June 30.

Argentina: YPF Legal Dispute To Fuel Uncertainty, Financial Volatility

Argentina's economy grew 5.8% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, Reuters reported June 23.

Argentina: Challenges to Meet IMF Requirements to Persist Despite Strong Economic Recovery

Argentina's Supreme Court confirmed former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's embezzlement conviction, upholding a six-year prison sentence and banning her from holding public office indefinitely, La Nacion reported on June 10. 

Argentina: Former President's Conviction To Undermine Opposition Ahead of Legislative Elections

Argentina issued a $1 billion peso-denominated five-year bond paying 29.5% to refinance debt, boost foreign reserves and meet International Monetary Fund loan requirements, Clarin reported on May 28.

Argentina: Bond Issuance Indicates Investor Confidence, Gradual Economic Normalization

Argentina's government announced measures that reduce the tax authorities' controls and ease foreign currency reporting rules to encourage citizens to bank billions of dollars they have saved in cash or offshore accounts without having to prove the money's origin, La Nacion reported May 22.

Argentina: Expanded Tax Amnesty to Boost Bank Dollars, Raise Laundering Risks

United States

Military & Security

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on social media that five Venezuelan opposition members have been successfully rescued from Argentina's embassy in Caracas after 412 days, Reuters reported May 6. 

U.S., Venezuela: Rescue of Opposition Members from Argentinian Embassy in Caracas Underscores U.S. Opposition to Venezuela

Assessments

Argentina's economy minister Luis Caputo (L) and Argentine President Javier Milei walk from the Casa Rosada Presidential Palace after a meeting on April 14, 2025.

Despite recent progress, Argentina's economic and financial position remains vulnerable over the medium term.

The Challenges Facing Argentina's New IMF Program

Snapshots

Bolivia

A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.

Global Trade

The South American trade bloc's July 2-3 summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and finalizing free trade deals with countries seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs.

The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals

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China

(L-R) Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina attend a plenary session of the China-CELAC ministerial meeting at the Great Hall of the People on May 13, 2025, in Beijing, China. 

Latin America and the Caribbean will welcome China's increased engagement, but strong ties to the West and China's economic slowdown will limit Beijing's influence in the region.

Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited

Aerial view of 9 de Julio Avenue in Buenos Aires, Argentina, is seen on April 10, 2025, during a 24-hour strike called by workers' unions against the economic policies of President Javier Milei. 

The $20 billion bailout package will reduce financial risks amid Argentina's ongoing macroeconomic adjustment, but the threat of policy slippage will increase ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

What To Make of Argentina's Latest IMF Deal

The headquarters of Argentina's central bank is seen in Buenos Aires on Feb. 20, 2025.

A new IMF program would improve Argentina's short- and medium-term economic and financial outlook in the face of limited international financial market access and negative foreign exchange reserves.

Argentina's Milei Signs Decree To Clear the Way for a New IMF Deal

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

President of Argentina Javier Milei speaks during a joint declaration with Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni (not in frame) on Nov. 20, 2024, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. 

Despite rising poverty and protests, Argentina's President Javier Milei will maintain enough support in 2025 to advance economic reforms that stabilize inflation, attract investment and gradually ease capital controls.

What to Expect From Argentina After Milei's First Year in Office 

Europe

Germany

France

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Americas

U.S. border patrol officials drive near the wall along the Mexican border in Sasabe, Arizona, on Dec. 8, 2023. 

The fallout from Trump's pledged tariffs and mass deportations could worsen living conditions in countries like Mexico, though countries with like-minded leaders, like Argentina, may fare better.

What Trump's Focus on Immigration, Trade and Ideology Means for Latin America

Argentine President Javier Milei gestures before presenting the 2025 budget proposal to Congress in Buenos Aires on Sept. 15, 2024. 

Since taking office last year, President Milei has made solid progress toward lowering inflation and debt levels. But without wider-ranging institutional reforms, Argentina will remain susceptible to recurrent economic instability and financial crises.

Milei Puts Argentina's Economy on Better Footing. Can It Last?

An illustrated map shows Mercosur countries.

Stalled trade deals and dwindling intra-bloc commerce will leave the South American trade bloc in a deadlock, likely resulting in only minor rule changes to prevent Mercosur's dissolution.

Mercosur's Latest Meeting Highlights Its Growing Stagnation

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Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife, Begona Gomez, arrive Oct. 5, 2023, at the Carlos V Palace at the Alhambra in Granada, Spain. Sanchez is expected to make an announcement about his political future on April 29 following his surprise decision April 25 to suspend public appearances after a court in Madrid announced an investigation into his wife for alleged influence-peddling and corruption.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South American Foreign Ministers Visit China, the Spanish Premier Announces His Political Future

Argentina is one of the most resource-rich countries in the world and faces few immediate external threats. The South American country is bound in the north by the rivers of the Rio de la Plata drainage basin, in the west by the Andes Mountains, and in the east by the Atlantic Ocean. Its core territory is the fertile Humid Pampas region, which includes the populous capital city of Buenos Aires. This area is the heart of Argentina’s large agricultural sector, supported by soybeans, wheat, corn and yerba mate. The areas west and south of this core area much more arid and rural but are rich in oil and natural gas. The Andes Mountains, towering to nearly 7,000 meters (23,000 feet), form a natural barrier between Argentina and Chile and protect Argentina's western flank. This protection adds to the natural protection afforded all of South America by its geographic isolation. The only local threat to Argentina is Brazil's growth, which poses a risk to Argentina's control over the all-important Rio de la Plata drainage basin. Argentina's biggest security concern has always been any possible blockade of this basin or of the Port of Buenos Aires, located at the mouth of the river. However, South America's relative isolation and Brazil’s historical weakness have protected post-Colonial Argentina. From its secure position, Argentina has been able to develop the strong agriculture and energy export markets that have made the country wealthy. However, its intrinsic security has also allowed Argentina to become overly focused on domestic issues and has contributed to its failure to develop stable institutions. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Argentina: Senate Approves Bill to Increase Pensions, Serving Blow to Milei

South America, Europe: Mercosur- EFTA Free Trade Agreement Finalized Amid U.S. Protectionism

Argentina: YPF Legal Dispute To Fuel Uncertainty, Financial Volatility

Argentina: Challenges to Meet IMF Requirements to Persist Despite Strong Economic Recovery

Argentina: Former President's Conviction To Undermine Opposition Ahead of Legislative Elections

Argentina: Bond Issuance Indicates Investor Confidence, Gradual Economic Normalization

Argentina: Expanded Tax Amnesty to Boost Bank Dollars, Raise Laundering Risks

U.S., Venezuela: Rescue of Opposition Members from Argentinian Embassy in Caracas Underscores U.S. Opposition to Venezuela

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