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Strained government resources, increased organized crime, political tensions and supply chain disruptions are likely to rise in tandem with migration.

How Record Migration Will Impact Central America

Colombian President Gustavo Petro delivers a speech in Congress in Bogota, Colombia, on July 20, 2023. 

Military & Security

Even if Petro manages to stay in power, his son’s money laundering charges could reduce support for his administration’s reform agenda and ongoing peace talks with guerrilla groups.

A Campaign Finance Scandal Threatens Colombia's President

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A demonstration July 27, 2022, in Niamey, Niger, after a coup. The Economic Community of West African States is expected to discuss the July 26 coup in Niger next week, with French officials saying an extraordinary summit could occur July 30.

Economics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: ECOWAS Considers Its Response to Niger, Drama at Lebanon's Central Bank Deepens

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On Geopolitics

A flag of the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group flutters in the wind in Catatumbo, Colombia, on Aug. 18, 2022. 

Even if the government successfully disarms the country's powerful guerrilla groups, new ones will only take their place as long as Colombia's drug trade remains lucrative.

Will Colombia Ever Achieve 'Total Peace?'

Colombian President Gustavo Petro (center) presents his government's pension reform bill to lawmakers in Congress in Bogota, Colombia, on March 22, 2023. 

President Petro's proposed healthcare, pension and labor reforms could improve the lives of poorer Colombians, though it may come at the expense of private investment.

Colombia's Leftist Government Embarks on an Ambitious Reform Push

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A digital illustration shows the flags of Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Chile and Peru. 

The rise of left-wing governments in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru is largely the result of growing anti-establishment sentiment fueled by economic volatility.

Is Latin America Experiencing Another Leftist Wave?

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A Chinese military vessel on Aug. 5, 2022, sails off Pingtan Island, Fujian province, one of mainland China's closest points to Taiwan. Beijing is likely to continue rolling out new methods of economic coercion against U.S. and Taiwanese companies in the coming week.

The Weekly Rundown: Colombia's President Takes Office, China Coerces Taiwan

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Essential Geopolitics thumbnail

RANE's Latin America analyst Carmen Colosi offers a look at the harsh realities facing Colombia's newly-elected president, Gustavo Petro.

Essential Geopolitics: The Road Ahead for Colombia's President Gustavo Petro

Gustavo Petro (center) celebrates with supporters in Bogota after winning Colombia’s presidential election on June 19, 2022. 

Environment, Science & Technology

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A slowing economy and fragmented legislature will likely force Petro to scale back his ambitious plans for tackling poverty and climate change.

The Hard Realities That Await Colombia’s New Left-Wing President

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Bogota, Colombia, on June 14, 2022. Colombia will hold the second round of its presidential elections June 19, with anti-establishment candidate Rodolfo Hernandez and left-wing opposition figure Gustavo Petro competing for the presidency.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Courts Refiners, Colombia Holds Its Presidential Runoff

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A volunteer slides a flyer into a house in Medellin, Colombia, supporting left-wing presidential candidate Gustavo Petro on May 27, 2022. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. Authorizes More Weapons for Ukraine, Colombia's Presidential Election Begins

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Centrist candidate Federico Gutierrez (right) speaks next to left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro (left) in Bogota on May 23, 2022, during the last presidential debate before Colombians begin casting ballots to elect their next leader. 

Whoever wins the upcoming vote will be tasked with mitigating widespread calls for systemic change, including transitioning to clean energy and enacting complex tax reforms. 

The Challenges Facing Colombia's Next President

Security Challenges in Latin America

Environmental Issues

Colombian prosecutor Mario Andres Burgos said the son of President Gustavo Petro, Nicolas Petro, "received large sums of money from criminal sources which…exceeded legal limits and a portion of which was not reported to electoral authorities," El Tiempo reported on Aug. 3.

Colombia: President's Son Accepted Illegal Financing for Father's 2022 Campaign

The son of Colombian President Gustavo Petro, Nicolas Petro, was arrested as part of an investigation into a money laundering scheme based on accusations that he accepted illicit financing from guerrilla groups in exchange for including them in his father's peace negotiation efforts, El Tiempo reported on July 29.

Colombia: President's Son Arrested in Money Laundering Probe

The Colombian government and a guerrilla group called the Estado Mayor Central (EMC) released a joint statement confirming the beginning of peace negotiations, El Tiempo reported on July 9. 

Colombia: Guerrilla Group to Participate In Peace Negotiations

The seventh committee in Colombia's lower house failed to reach a quorum in the first debate over the introduction of a labor reform, El Tiempo reported on June 20.

Colombia: Setbacks for Labor Reform Bode Well for Companies, Poorly for Credit Rating

The Colombian government agreed to a cease-fire with the country's largest remaining guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), AP reported June 9.

Colombia: Government Signs Cease-Fire With ELN Guerrilla Group

The leader of Colombia's largest guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), said peace talks between the Colombian government and the ELN have been paused due to remarks from President Gustavo Petro, AP reported on May 16.

Colombia: ELN Rebel Leader Says Negotiations 'On Pause'

Venezuela

The government of Colombian President Gustavo Petro expelled Juan Guaido, the former leader of Venezuela's opposition interim government, from the country after Guaido unexpectedly traveled to Colombia in an attempt to take part in an international summit, El Tiempo reported on April 24.

Venezuela: Colombia Expelled Juan Guaido After Surprise Visit

Belize

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Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

The leaders of Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Honduras, Mexico, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Venezuela met virtually and agreed to take steps to facilitate commercial trade, La Jornada reported April 5.

Latin America: Left-Wing Governments Ally to Reduce Food Inflation

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

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Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

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A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

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Colombia is located at the strategic meeting point of Central and South America. The country shares a land border with Panama, Venezuela, Brazil, Peru and Ecuador, and has coasts on both the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea.    Colombia's modern borders began to take shape in 1831 with the division of Simon Bolivar's Gran Colombia. In 1903, the country lost another strategic territory when Panama gained its independence. Ever since, Colombia has had to maintain friendly relations with whoever controls the Panama Canal.    Colombia is dissected by three Andean mountain ranges: the Western, Central, and Eastern Cordilleras. Because of the country's tropical equatorial climate, major population centers are concentrated in temperate zones at higher altitudes.     The country's economic and political heartland is the capital city of Bogota. This core region has a population of roughly 8 million people. The Magdalena River Basin connects the core to Cartagena and Barranquilla, the country's largest ports.      The dense Amazonian rain forests to the south, the sparsely populated Orinoco plains to the east, and the Pacific coastline make up Colombia's periphery. These regions are home to valuable commodities such as oil and coal, as well as areas of drug trafficking and rebel insurgency. Consolidating control over these areas is currently Colombia's primary geographic challenge.      Looking forward, the country's natural resource wealth and close proximity to the United States could lead to ongoing economic opportunities. That said, the country will continue to be constrained by security challenges and by poor integration between Colombia's population centers, the resource-rich hinterlands and the coasts.

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SITUATION REPORTS

Colombia: President's Son Accepted Illegal Financing for Father's 2022 Campaign

Colombia: President's Son Arrested in Money Laundering Probe

Colombia: Guerrilla Group to Participate In Peace Negotiations

Colombia: Setbacks for Labor Reform Bode Well for Companies, Poorly for Credit Rating

Colombia: Government Signs Cease-Fire With ELN Guerrilla Group

Colombia: ELN Rebel Leader Says Negotiations 'On Pause'

Venezuela: Colombia Expelled Juan Guaido After Surprise Visit

Latin America: Left-Wing Governments Ally to Reduce Food Inflation

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