Colombia

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Politics

U.S. federal prosecutors are conducting at least two separate investigations into Colombian President Gustavo Petro over alleged meetings with drug traffickers and whether his presidential campaign solicited funds from criminals, The New York Times reported on March 20.

U.S., Colombia: U.S. Prosecutors Investigate Petro Over Connections With Drug Traffickers

Ecuador

Economics

Military & Security

Colombian President Gustavo Petro alleged on March 16 that Ecuadorian authorities had bombed drug trafficking groups on the Colombian side of the countries' border, DW reported on March 17.

Ecuador, Colombia: Colombia Alleges Ecuador Bombed Group on Colombian Side of Border

Colombia's leftist ruling ​party and right-wing main opposition party won the most seats in the March 8 legislative elections but did not secure a majority, El Colombiano reported on the same date. 

Colombia: Legislative Election Results in Fragmented Congress; Presidential Primary Gives Center-Right Momentum

Colombia's President Gustavo Petro issued a decree maintaining the 23.7% increase to the minimum wage his government announced in December, but which the country's top administrative court had suspended on Feb. 13, El Pais reported on Feb. 19.

Colombia: Petro Maintains 23% Minimum Wage Increase Following Court Challenge

Venezuela

Alex Saab, a close ally and frontman of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, was arrested in Caracas on Feb. 4 as a result of a joint U.S.-Venezuelan operation, El Pais reported the same day. 

Venezuela, U.S., Colombia: Maduro Ally Arrested in Joint U.S.-Venezuelan Operation

U.S. President Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro met for two hours Feb. 3 at the White House and discussed cooperation to fight drug trafficking, El Colombiano reported.

U.S., Colombia: Trump-Petro Meeting Indicates Room for De-escalation 

Colombian President Gustavo Petro said that if he could run for reelection, he would win in the first round, and he resumed calls to rewrite the country's constitution, Infobae reported on Jan. 27. 

Colombia: Petro Floats Constitutional Change To Run for Reelection Amid Popularity Boost

Energy

Ecuador announced 30% tariffs on Colombian goods effective Feb. 1 over an alleged lack of cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking, Reuters reported on Jan. 21.

Colombia, Ecuador: Bogota Retaliates Against Quito's Security-Related Tariffs

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Plumes of smoke rise following reported explosions in Tehran on March 2, 2026, after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top military leaders, prompting a new wave of Iranian retaliatory missile attacks across the region. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: War in the Middle East, U.S.-China Trade Talks

Iranian newspapers one of them (R) with a headline in Persian reading "Iran is ready for a big response," Jan. 27 in Tehran in Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump is considering a range of military options against Iran.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Colombian Presidents Meet, The Threat of U.S. Strikes on Iran

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Brazil

Guyana

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. 

Venezuela's acting president is most likely to cooperate with the United States to keep the country's regime intact, but other, more volatile scenarios remain possible. 

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

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A U.S. Marine V-22 Osprey takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport, formerly Roosevelt Roads Naval Station, on Sept. 13, 2025, in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. 

The Trump administration will likely expand its attacks against alleged drug traffickers in the region over the next year, potentially extending to land-based targets, which will create safety, operational and compliance challenges for organizations.

The Outlook for U.S. Strikes on Drug Traffickers in Latin America and the Caribbean

Argentina

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(L-R) Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina attend a plenary session of the China-CELAC ministerial meeting at the Great Hall of the People on May 13, 2025, in Beijing, China. 

Latin America and the Caribbean will welcome China's increased engagement, but strong ties to the West and China's economic slowdown will limit Beijing's influence in the region.

Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited

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The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Colombian Foreign Relations Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo (C) looks on with other Colombian officials during a Jan. 26 press conference on a diplomatic dispute with the United States at the San Carlos Palace in Bogota, Colombia. 

The U.S. threat of tariffs and sanctions on Colombia because of a dispute over migrants offers a precedent for future White House threats against countries in Latin America and other parts of the world.

What Trump's Sanction and Tariff Threats Mean For Colombia 

U.S. border patrol officials drive near the wall along the Mexican border in Sasabe, Arizona, on Dec. 8, 2023. 

The fallout from Trump's pledged tariffs and mass deportations could worsen living conditions in countries like Mexico, though countries with like-minded leaders, like Argentina, may fare better.

What Trump's Focus on Immigration, Trade and Ideology Means for Latin America

Snapshots

Colombian President Gustavo Petro sits in front of a Colombian flag during a meeting in Lisbon, Portugal, on May 6, 2023. 

The president's struggle to find consensus with lawmakers will likely see him resort to controversial decrees or referendums to try to enact his proposed policy reforms. 

In Colombia, Ongoing Legislative Gridlock Bodes Ill for Petro's Reform Agenda

Colombian President Gustavo Petro participates in a march for International Workers Day in Bogota, Colombia, on May 1, 2024. 

The ongoing scandals and growing public dissatisfaction with the government will prolong political volatility and policy uncertainty in Colombia, while increasing the risk of social unrest.

What Another Corruption Scandal Means for Colombia's Fragile Government

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) April 12 in Dausa, India.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Indian Elections, Scholz Goes to China

Colombia is located at the strategic meeting point of Central and South America. The country shares a land border with Panama, Venezuela, Brazil, Peru and Ecuador, and has coasts on both the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea.    Colombia's modern borders began to take shape in 1831 with the division of Simon Bolivar's Gran Colombia. In 1903, the country lost another strategic territory when Panama gained its independence. Ever since, Colombia has had to maintain friendly relations with whoever controls the Panama Canal.    Colombia is dissected by three Andean mountain ranges: the Western, Central, and Eastern Cordilleras. Because of the country's tropical equatorial climate, major population centers are concentrated in temperate zones at higher altitudes.     The country's economic and political heartland is the capital city of Bogota. This core region has a population of roughly 8 million people. The Magdalena River Basin connects the core to Cartagena and Barranquilla, the country's largest ports.      The dense Amazonian rain forests to the south, the sparsely populated Orinoco plains to the east, and the Pacific coastline make up Colombia's periphery. These regions are home to valuable commodities such as oil and coal, as well as areas of drug trafficking and rebel insurgency. Consolidating control over these areas is currently Colombia's primary geographic challenge.      Looking forward, the country's natural resource wealth and close proximity to the United States could lead to ongoing economic opportunities. That said, the country will continue to be constrained by security challenges and by poor integration between Colombia's population centers, the resource-rich hinterlands and the coasts.

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Colombia: U.S. Prosecutors Investigate Petro Over Connections With Drug Traffickers

Ecuador, Colombia: Colombia Alleges Ecuador Bombed Group on Colombian Side of Border

Colombia: Legislative Election Results in Fragmented Congress; Presidential Primary Gives Center-Right Momentum

Colombia: Petro Maintains 23% Minimum Wage Increase Following Court Challenge

Venezuela, U.S., Colombia: Maduro Ally Arrested in Joint U.S.-Venezuelan Operation

U.S., Colombia: Trump-Petro Meeting Indicates Room for De-escalation

Colombia: Petro Floats Constitutional Change To Run for Reelection Amid Popularity Boost

Colombia, Ecuador: Bogota Retaliates Against Quito's Security-Related Tariffs

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