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El Salvador

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Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former president of Honduras, is seen handcuffed at the headquarters of the country’s police force in Tegucigalpa on Feb. 15, 2022. He was arrested after receiving an extradition order from the United States. 

Politics

Military & Security

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The arrest of the Central American country’s former president over bribery charges marks a notable step in U.S. efforts to reduce migration flows from the region.

Biden’s Anti-Corruption Push Makes Headway in Honduras

Security

Security Challenges in Latin America

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On Security

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A demonstration against a Polish parliamentary vote seen as impinging on press freedoms Dec. 19, 2021, in Warsaw, Poland. Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

Political Instability & Social Unrest

Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

The Corporate Implications of Cracking Down on Domestic Dissent

U.S.-China Relations

Guidance

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Implementation difficulties will likely serve as a cautionary tale to other nations considering national digital currencies.

The Benefits, Risks and Constraints of El Salvador's Bitcoin Gambit

Cyber

Snapshots

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele delivers a press conference at a hotel in San Salvador on Feb. 28, 2021. 

His party's new legislative majority will enable President Bukele to appoint Supreme Court justices and pass sweeping constitutional reforms.

An Election Brings El Salvador’s President Closer to Complete Control

COVID-19

Greece

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An oil tanker on Dec. 11, 2019, at the port of Ras al-Khair, Saudi Arabia. OPEC+ holds its first meetings since oil prices rallied substantially in February.

Energy

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Greece and Turkey Meet, as Does OPEC+

On Geopolitics

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U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about the situation in Myanmar following the recent military coup in Washington D.C. on Feb. 10, 2021. 

Globalization

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

Russia's Internal Struggle

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Amid talk of new U.S. sanctions on Myanmar and Russia, we review what factors make such penalties most effective in actually altering a country’s behavior.

Reviewing the Role and Effectiveness of Sanctions

Venezuela's Unraveling

Iran's Arc of Influence

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Haiti

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As the pandemic leaves more migrants out of work and unable to send money back home, many developing countries that rely on those cash inflows can expect major recessions and increased instability.

COVID-19 Will Cause Global Poverty to Spike

Agriculture

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

This geographically, culturally and politically diverse region is home to the United States, a nation whose geography helped it become the foremost economic and military power in the world

The Americas stretch from the Arctic Circle in Canada to the southern tip of Chile. This geographically, culturally and politically diverse region is home to the United States, a nation whose geography helped it become the foremost economic and military power in the world &mdash; an ascendance aided in part by bringing Mexico and Canada into its sphere of influence. Farther south, the nations of South America are like islands, separated by vast spaces of impenetrable mountains, rivers and jungles. Try though these countries may to integrate more closely, deeper ties such as those that characterize North America will prove elusive.

2020 Annual Forecast

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Central American migrants, mostly from Honduras, climb over a barrier as they try to reach the U.S.-Mexico border on Nov. 25, 2018, near the El Chaparral border crossing in Tijuana, Baja California State, Mexico. The number of Hondurans seeking asylum or employment in the United States will likely remain stubbornly high amid persistent political and economic instability there.

Social Issues

The Importance of Mexico

Crossing Borders

The Honduran left's electoral strategy will create greater conflict over immigration between Mexico and the United States.

As Honduran Unrest Flares, So Will Immigration to the United States

Global Perspectives

Contributor Perspectives

New Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will find it difficult to achieve prosperity for El Salvador while breaking with political tradition.

Nayib Bukele wants to break with Salvadoran politics of the past. Can he manage the expectations of his supporters, the vested interests of his rivals and the desires of the U.S. and China?

El Salvador's Combative New President Faces a Perilous Balancing Act

Taiwan

El Salvador and China are planning to begin talks over a free trade agreement with the intention of reaching a treaty "as soon as possible," according to a Nov. 9 announcement by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, Reuters reported the same day.

El Salvador: Government to Begin Talks Over Free Trade Agreement With China

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele announced that he will seek reelection to a second term as president during a speech in the capital of San Salvador to commemorate the country’s Independence Day on Sept. 15, Reuters reported Sept. 16.

El Salvador: President Bukele Announced Reelection Campaign

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele announced via Twitter a voluntary repurchase offer to holders of the country's sovereign debt bonds maturing between 2023 and 2025, Reuters reported July 26.

El Salvador: Government to Issue Debt Buyback Offer

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris announced an additional $1.9 billion in private-sector investment pledges in Central America, with a focus on the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala, Reuters reported June 6.

U.S., Central America: White House Announced $1.9 Billion Private Sector Investment

El Salvador's Legislative Assembly voted to extend the country's anti-gang emergency decree for another 30 days at the request of President Nayib Bukele, The Washington Post reported May 25.

El Salvador: Government Extends Anti-Gang State of Emergency for Second Time

Bitcoin hit a low of $29,602 on May 12, which is a 57% decline since its November 2021 highs and a 38% drop since El Salvador officially adopted bitcoin as legal tender on Sept. 7, 2021, and bitcoin briefly touched its lowest level since 2020, Bloomberg reported May 12.

El Salvador: Bitcoin Collapse Prompts Concern About Debt Outlook

El Salvador's Legislative Assembly extended the country's state of emergency by an additional 30 days, Deutsche Welle reported April 24.

El Salvador: Legislative Assembly Approves Extension Of State Of Emergency

El Salvador's Legislative Assembly voted to quadruple the sentences for gang-related crimes, Reuters reported March 30.

El Salvador: Reform Drastically Increases Prison Time for Gang Members

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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The tiny country of El Salvador is typical of Central America's geographic challenges. Nestled south of Honduras, southeast of Guatemala and northwest of Nicaragua, El Salvador's landmass is small &mdash; even compared to its neighbors. Throughout most of its history, El Salvador was an agricultural society. The mountainous terrain and relative isolation from the rest of the world encouraged subsistence agriculture but very little profitable economic activity. Despite the growth of some industry, such as textile manufacturing, in the late 20th century, El Salvador remains a very underdeveloped country.    This underdevelopment fostered stark political divisions in the country's society. Abroad, El Salvador is perhaps best known for a 13-year civil war between communist-backed forces and the U.S.-backed government. The war ended in 1992, but the country remains politically split along economic class lines and between the left and right. The main political parties in the country are those organized around members of the now-disbanded leftist guerrilla movement and the right-leaning government.    Illegal migration and violent crime remain the principal concern in El Salvador for the United States. El Salvador is simply too small and too resource-poor to sustain its population. Explosive population growth in the mid-20th century, endemic poverty and civil war caused mass migration abroad. More than a million Salvadorans fled the country, mostly to the United States. After the conflict, violent crime &mdash; mainly in the form of criminal gangs such as MS-13 and Barrio 18, and their numerous cliques across the country &mdash; compounded the migration problem. To this day, remittances from Salvadorans living in the United States are one of the main sources of foreign income for the country's economy. For the United States, neither of the security concerns from El Salvador are first-tier foreign policy priorities. Instead, they are persistent issues that some administrations choose to take more seriously than others.

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The Salvadoran government declared a state of emergency after a spike in gang violence on March 26 left at least 62 people dead, El Faro reported March 27.

El Salvador: Government Declares State Of Emergency After Sharp Rise in Homicides

SITUATION REPORTS

El Salvador: Government to Begin Talks Over Free Trade Agreement With China

El Salvador: President Bukele Announced Reelection Campaign

El Salvador: Government to Issue Debt Buyback Offer

U.S., Central America: White House Announced $1.9 Billion Private Sector Investment

El Salvador: Government Extends Anti-Gang State of Emergency for Second Time

El Salvador: Bitcoin Collapse Prompts Concern About Debt Outlook

El Salvador: Legislative Assembly Approves Extension Of State Of Emergency

El Salvador: Reform Drastically Increases Prison Time for Gang Members

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