El Salvador

Politics

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele stepped down on Nov. 30 to run for reelection in the upcoming Feb. 4, 2024, general elections, receiving a leave of absence from the country's Legislative Assembly and appointing his private secretary, Claudia Rodriguez, as acting president, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 1.

El Salvador: President Bukele Steps Down to Run for Reelection

United States

China

Taiwan

Economics

El Salvador and China are planning to begin talks over a free trade agreement with the intention of reaching a treaty "as soon as possible," according to a Nov. 9 announcement by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, Reuters reported the same day.

El Salvador: Government to Begin Talks Over Free Trade Agreement With China

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele announced that he will seek reelection to a second term as president during a speech in the capital of San Salvador to commemorate the country’s Independence Day on Sept. 15, Reuters reported Sept. 16.

El Salvador: President Bukele Announced Reelection Campaign

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele announced via Twitter a voluntary repurchase offer to holders of the country's sovereign debt bonds maturing between 2023 and 2025, Reuters reported July 26.

El Salvador: Government to Issue Debt Buyback Offer

Guatemala

Honduras

Social Issues

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Crossing Borders

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris announced an additional $1.9 billion in private-sector investment pledges in Central America, with a focus on the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala, Reuters reported June 6.

U.S., Central America: White House Announced $1.9 Billion Private Sector Investment

Security

Security Challenges in Latin America

Military & Security

El Salvador's Legislative Assembly voted to extend the country's anti-gang emergency decree for another 30 days at the request of President Nayib Bukele, The Washington Post reported May 25.

El Salvador: Government Extends Anti-Gang State of Emergency for Second Time

Bitcoin hit a low of $29,602 on May 12, which is a 57% decline since its November 2021 highs and a 38% drop since El Salvador officially adopted bitcoin as legal tender on Sept. 7, 2021, and bitcoin briefly touched its lowest level since 2020, Bloomberg reported May 12.

El Salvador: Bitcoin Collapse Prompts Concern About Debt Outlook

El Salvador's Legislative Assembly extended the country's state of emergency by an additional 30 days, Deutsche Welle reported April 24.

El Salvador: Legislative Assembly Approves Extension Of State Of Emergency

Snapshots

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Chile

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Israel

Palestinian Territories

People attend a rally in support of Israel in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Oct. 22, 2023. 

Anger over the conflict could temporarily strain Israel and the U.S.'s relations with left-wing governments in the region, while countries with large Jewish or Arab populations may see more security-related incidents.

Latin America's Response to the Israel-Hamas War 

Assessments

Salvadoran security forces move a second group of 2,000 detainees overnight to the mega-prison Terrorist Confinement Center on March 15, 2023, in Tecoluca, El Salvador. 

El Salvador's successful state of emergency could convince other regional countries to attempt the same strategy, leading to safety, reputational and migratory risks.

The Appeal (and Perils) of Crime Crackdowns in Latin America, Part 2

Ecuador

Peru

Soldiers conduct a patrol on July 22, 2023, in the Salvadorean municipality of Colon, where the MS-13 gang reportedly remains active. 

The success of El Salvador's counter-crime state of emergency in reducing the country's homicide rate will be hard to replicate, despite the efforts of nearby countries.

The Appeal (and Perils) of Crime Crackdowns in Latin America, Part 1

Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former president of Honduras, is seen handcuffed at the headquarters of the country’s police force in Tegucigalpa on Feb. 15, 2022. He was arrested after receiving an extradition order from the United States. 

The arrest of the Central American country’s former president over bribery charges marks a notable step in U.S. efforts to reduce migration flows from the region.

Biden’s Anti-Corruption Push Makes Headway in Honduras

Columns

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Hong Kong SAR, China

Belarus

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A demonstration against a Polish parliamentary vote seen as impinging on press freedoms Dec. 19, 2021, in Warsaw, Poland. Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

Political Instability & Social Unrest

U.S.-China Relations

Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

The Corporate Implications of Cracking Down on Domestic Dissent

Guidance

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Implementation difficulties will likely serve as a cautionary tale to other nations considering national digital currencies.

The Benefits, Risks and Constraints of El Salvador's Bitcoin Gambit

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele delivers a press conference at a hotel in San Salvador on Feb. 28, 2021. 

COVID-19

His party's new legislative majority will enable President Bukele to appoint Supreme Court justices and pass sweeping constitutional reforms.

An Election Brings El Salvador’s President Closer to Complete Control

Greece

Iraq

Saudi Arabia

An oil tanker on Dec. 11, 2019, at the port of Ras al-Khair, Saudi Arabia. OPEC+ holds its first meetings since oil prices rallied substantially in February.

Energy

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Greece and Turkey Meet, as Does OPEC+

On Geopolitics

Burundi

South Africa

Venezuela

Myanmar

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U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about the situation in Myanmar following the recent military coup in Washington D.C. on Feb. 10, 2021. 

Venezuela's Unraveling

Iran's Arc of Influence

Globalization

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

Russia's Internal Struggle

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Amid talk of new U.S. sanctions on Myanmar and Russia, we review what factors make such penalties most effective in actually altering a country’s behavior.

Reviewing the Role and Effectiveness of Sanctions

Americas

Haiti

Mexico

Agriculture

As the pandemic leaves more migrants out of work and unable to send money back home, many developing countries that rely on those cash inflows can expect major recessions and increased instability.

COVID-19 Will Cause Global Poverty to Spike

Central American migrants, mostly from Honduras, climb over a barrier as they try to reach the U.S.-Mexico border on Nov. 25, 2018, near the El Chaparral border crossing in Tijuana, Baja California State, Mexico. The number of Hondurans seeking asylum or employment in the United States will likely remain stubbornly high amid persistent political and economic instability there.

The Importance of Mexico

The Honduran left's electoral strategy will create greater conflict over immigration between Mexico and the United States.

As Honduran Unrest Flares, So Will Immigration to the United States

Global Perspectives

Contributor Perspectives

New Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will find it difficult to achieve prosperity for El Salvador while breaking with political tradition.

Nayib Bukele wants to break with Salvadoran politics of the past. Can he manage the expectations of his supporters, the vested interests of his rivals and the desires of the U.S. and China?

El Salvador's Combative New President Faces a Perilous Balancing Act

The tiny country of El Salvador is typical of Central America's geographic challenges. Nestled south of Honduras, southeast of Guatemala and northwest of Nicaragua, El Salvador's landmass is small &mdash; even compared to its neighbors. Throughout most of its history, El Salvador was an agricultural society. The mountainous terrain and relative isolation from the rest of the world encouraged subsistence agriculture but very little profitable economic activity. Despite the growth of some industry, such as textile manufacturing, in the late 20th century, El Salvador remains a very underdeveloped country.    This underdevelopment fostered stark political divisions in the country's society. Abroad, El Salvador is perhaps best known for a 13-year civil war between communist-backed forces and the U.S.-backed government. The war ended in 1992, but the country remains politically split along economic class lines and between the left and right. The main political parties in the country are those organized around members of the now-disbanded leftist guerrilla movement and the right-leaning government.    Illegal migration and violent crime remain the principal concern in El Salvador for the United States. El Salvador is simply too small and too resource-poor to sustain its population. Explosive population growth in the mid-20th century, endemic poverty and civil war caused mass migration abroad. More than a million Salvadorans fled the country, mostly to the United States. After the conflict, violent crime &mdash; mainly in the form of criminal gangs such as MS-13 and Barrio 18, and their numerous cliques across the country &mdash; compounded the migration problem. To this day, remittances from Salvadorans living in the United States are one of the main sources of foreign income for the country's economy. For the United States, neither of the security concerns from El Salvador are first-tier foreign policy priorities. Instead, they are persistent issues that some administrations choose to take more seriously than others.

SITUATION REPORTS

El Salvador: President Bukele Steps Down to Run for Reelection

El Salvador: Government to Begin Talks Over Free Trade Agreement With China

El Salvador: President Bukele Announced Reelection Campaign

El Salvador: Government to Issue Debt Buyback Offer

U.S., Central America: White House Announced $1.9 Billion Private Sector Investment

El Salvador: Government Extends Anti-Gang State of Emergency for Second Time

El Salvador: Bitcoin Collapse Prompts Concern About Debt Outlook

El Salvador: Legislative Assembly Approves Extension Of State Of Emergency

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