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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (C) at a weekly Cabinet meeting Feb. 19, 2023, in Jerusalem.

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel's Cabinet Votes on a National Guard, Von der Leyen and Macron Visit China

U.S.-China Relations

El Salvador

Honduras

Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former president of Honduras, is seen handcuffed at the headquarters of the country’s police force in Tegucigalpa on Feb. 15, 2022. He was arrested after receiving an extradition order from the United States. 

Military & Security

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The arrest of the Central American country’s former president over bribery charges marks a notable step in U.S. efforts to reduce migration flows from the region.

Biden’s Anti-Corruption Push Makes Headway in Honduras

Security

Security Challenges in Latin America

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Podcasts

In this podcast, Emily Donahue speaks to Ben West, a Stratfor senior global security analyst, about the forecast for the U.S.-Mexico border in 2021.

Essential Geopolitics: The U.S.-Mexico Border Forecast for 2021

2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

This geographically, culturally and politically diverse region is home to the United States, a nation whose geography helped it become the foremost economic and military power in the world

Americas

The Americas stretch from the Arctic Circle in Canada to the southern tip of Chile. This geographically, culturally and politically diverse region is home to the United States, a nation whose geography helped it become the foremost economic and military power in the world &mdash; an ascendance aided in part by bringing Mexico and Canada into its sphere of influence. Farther south, the nations of South America are like islands, separated by vast spaces of impenetrable mountains, rivers and jungles. Try though these countries may to integrate more closely, deeper ties such as those that characterize North America will prove elusive.

Global Perspectives

Contributor Perspectives

Guatemala is still working out the details of how it will implement a 'safe third country' agreement signed last year with the United States.

The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.

Why the Details of a White House Asylum Deal Matter to Guatemala

2020 Annual Forecast

Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales, shown speaking during an Aug. 14 news conference in Guatemala City, signed a so-called safe third-country agreement with the United States in July to try to stem migrant flows. By most measures, Guatemala is far from 'safe.'

The government recently pushed out a U.N. anti-corruption commission and signed an asylum agreement with the U.S. A failure to pursue corruption will exacerbate the conditions that drive Guatemalans north, and further anger the White House.

Corruption Fuels a Feedback Loop in Guatemala

Partner Perspectives

Former Guatemalan first lady Sandra Torres was arrested Sept. 2 after her immunity from prosecution expired following her loss to Alejandro Giammattei in Guatemala's presidential election.

The arrest of the former presidential candidate and first lady will have the incoming administration treading carefully to find a workable cure for Guatemala's electoral sickness.

Sandra Torres and the Health of Guatemala's Electoral System

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Guatemala holds a presidential runoff election on Aug. 11. Corruption, security and Guatemala's worsening relationship with the United States are top issues for the two presidential finalists, Alejandro Giammattei and Sandra Torres.

With few available options or resources, the winner of the country's Aug. 11 runoff election will face corruption and security issues and have to weigh the temptation of Chinese promises amid deteriorating relations with the United States.

Guatemala's Next President Faces a Stacked Deck

Central American migrants, mostly from Honduras, climb over a barrier as they try to reach the U.S.-Mexico border on Nov. 25, 2018, near the El Chaparral border crossing in Tijuana, Baja California State, Mexico. The number of Hondurans seeking asylum or employment in the United States will likely remain stubbornly high amid persistent political and economic instability there.

Social Issues

The Importance of Mexico

Crossing Borders

The Honduran left's electoral strategy will create greater conflict over immigration between Mexico and the United States.

As Honduran Unrest Flares, So Will Immigration to the United States

2019 Third-Quarter Forecast

A judge in Guatemala's Administrative Litigation Court suspended the candidacy of opposition presidential candidate Carlos Pineda, who was the frontrunner in Guatemala’s June 25 presidential election, Reuters reported on May 19.

Guatemala: Judge Suspends Presidential Frontrunner's Candidacy

Miguel Angel Galvez, a renowned anti-corruption-focused judge in Guatemala with over two decades on the bench, resigned from his position and took to social media to criticize the government for promoting a "lack of judicial independence," Reuters reported Nov. 15.

Guatemala: Anti-Corruption Judge Resigns, Blasts Government

Economics

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris announced an additional $1.9 billion in private-sector investment pledges in Central America, with a focus on the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala, Reuters reported June 6.

U.S., Central America: White House Announced $1.9 Billion Private Sector Investment

On Feb. 16, Guatemala's Prosecutor's Office confirmed the arrest of two assistant prosecutors in the office of the Special Prosecutor Against Impunity, which is an anti-corruption institution, for allegedly coercing a witness into giving a testimony, Reuters reported Feb. 17.

Guatemala: Assistant Prosecutors Arrested Amid Accusations of Corruption

Guatemala’s Congress increased the prison sentence for convicted human traffickers from 2-5 years to 10-30 years and announced a fine of 100,000-200,000 quetzales ($13,000-$26,000) for each trafficked person, which is meant to target migrant-smuggling gangs and "coyotes" who smuggle people across country borders, Reuters reported Feb. 2.

Guatemala: Congress Increases Punishment for Human Traffickers

The Mexican and U.S. foreign development agencies will work on a new “Planting Opportunities” initiative to promote economic development in Northern Triangle countries -- El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras -- to curb migration patterns, Reuters reported Dec. 1.

Mexico, U.S.: Foreign Ministries to Address Root Causes of Central American Migration

The U.S. government announced it had put the five judges in the Salvadoran Supreme Court's constitutional chamber and Guatemala's attorney general on a list of corrupt, undemocratic officials, prohibiting them from entering the United States by immediately withdrawing their visas, El Faro reported Sept. 21.

U.S.: Top Guatemalan, Salvadoran Officials Added to List of Undemocratic Persons

Rafael Curruchiche, a prosecutor who has previously faced allegations of protecting corrupt officials, has been tapped to oversee Guatemala’s anti-graft task force, Reuters reported Aug. 3.

Guatemala: Controversial Prosecutor Appointed to Head Anti-Corruption Force

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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Guatemala is one of the northernmost countries in Central America, bordering Mexico, Belize, Honduras and El Salvador. Guatemala’s mountainous terrain, tropical latitude and small size limit the country's influence in the Caribbean basin as compared to stronger North American neighbors.    The Sierra Madre Mountains stretch from Mexico into Guatemala, forming the majority of the country’s territory. The height and rugged terrain of this active volcanic range complicates the construction and maintenance of infrastructure, thereby limiting state control over the territory.    To the north, the tropical lowland Peten region comprises nearly a third of Guatemala’s territory. This humid region is densely forested with a climate unsuitable for agriculture. As a result, Peten is very lightly populated. Although Peten was for a time the heart of the Mayan civilization, the modern core of Guatemala lies in the southern Highlands.    At nearly 5,000 feet in elevation, the altitude of the capital, Guatemala City, moderates the tropical latitude, creating a mild climate suitable for growing crops like corn and beans that can support a sizable human population.    The city's strategic location gives the country access to both coasts and maritime trade on the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Guatemala has historically found itself battered by the policies of its larger neighbors, including a 36-year civil war that was directly influence by the Cold War.    Today, Guatemala is a stopping point for western hemispheric drug traffickers. Difficult geography, a complex political neighborhood and few natural resources stand in the way of economic development and will continue to complicate Guatemala’s geopolitical future.

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SITUATION REPORTS

Guatemala: Judge Suspends Presidential Frontrunner's Candidacy

Guatemala: Anti-Corruption Judge Resigns, Blasts Government

U.S., Central America: White House Announced $1.9 Billion Private Sector Investment

Guatemala: Assistant Prosecutors Arrested Amid Accusations of Corruption

Guatemala: Congress Increases Punishment for Human Traffickers

Mexico, U.S.: Foreign Ministries to Address Root Causes of Central American Migration

U.S.: Top Guatemalan, Salvadoran Officials Added to List of Undemocratic Persons

Guatemala: Controversial Prosecutor Appointed to Head Anti-Corruption Force

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