Guatemala

Military & Security

Politics

A Guatemalan prosecutor announced that authorities will seek to remove immunity from President-elect Bernardo Arevalo and his running mate, Karin Herrera, for their alleged complicity in a 2022 incident in which students forcibly took over a university in the capital, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 16.

Guatemala: Authorities Seek to Remove Arevalo's Immunity, Opening Door to Possible Arrest

The Citizen Registry of Guatemala's Supreme Electoral Tribunal, which regulates the country's political parties, executed a months-old request from the Attorney General's office to suspend President-elect Bernardo Arevalo's Seed Movement party, El Pais reported on Nov. 2.

Guatemala: President-Elect's Seed Movement Party Suspended

Economics

Protests calling for the resignation of Guatemala's Attorney General Consuelo Porras entered their 11th straight day on Oct. 12, with nearly 100 roadblocks established nationwide, including on major highways and in Guatemala City, El Pais reported the same day.

Guatemala: Protests Against Attorney General Create Supply Chain Disruptions

United States

Officials from the Attorney General's office conducted another raid on Guatemala's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) facilities, leading officers to briefly scuffle with judges who attempted to physically prevent the officers from taking materials, AP reported on Sept. 30.

Guatemala: Police Scuffle With Judges During New Raid

Supporters of Guatemala's President-elect Bernardo Arevalo launched protests on Sept. 18 and 19 alleging that the Attorney General's office is attempting a "coup d'etat," with protests blocking major highways throughout the country, Infobae reported on Sept. 19.

Guatemala: Domestic and International Allegations of 'Coup' Against President-Elect Increase

Guatemala's Attorney General's office raided electoral facilities, after which President-elect Bernardo Arevalo temporarily suspended his presidential transition process and called for the resignation of Attorney General Consuelo Porras, AP reported on Sept. 12. 

Guatemala: President-Elect Suspends Transition After Raids on Electoral Body

Guatemala's Supreme Electoral Tribunal declared leftist candidate Bernardo Arevalo the winner of the country's Aug. 20 presidential election, but hours earlier, the tribunal provisionally suspended the legal status of Arevalo's Seed Party, El Faro reported on Aug. 29.

Guatemala: Electoral Institute Ratifies Arevalo's Win, Suspends His Party

Guatemala's National Unity of Hope party, whose presidential candidate Sandra Torres lost the country's Aug. 20 runoff vote, filed a complaint alleging voter fraud, AP reported on Aug. 25.

Guatemala: Party of Losing Candidate Files Election Fraud Claim

Snapshots

Guatemalan President-elect Bernardo Arevalo and Guatemalan outgoing President Alejandro Giammattei chat at the end of the second government transition meeting on Sept. 11, 2023. 

Threats of U.S. sanctions against Guatemala are unlikely to persuade the country's political elite from challenging the results of the presidential election, creating risks of unrest, as well as compliance challenges and possible political instability.

 U.S. Threats of Increased Sanctions Unlikely to Sway Guatemala's Political Elite

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Soldiers conduct a patrol on July 22, 2023, in the Salvadorean municipality of Colon, where the MS-13 gang reportedly remains active. 

The success of El Salvador's counter-crime state of emergency in reducing the country's homicide rate will be hard to replicate, despite the efforts of nearby countries.

The Appeal (and Perils) of Crime Crackdowns in Latin America, Part 1

Police officers remain at the entrance of the Electoral Process Operations Center during government raids in Guatemala City on Sept. 12, 2023.

If political elites overturn Guatemala's election results, unrest and weaker relations with international partners will follow.

More Raids Threaten to Undermine Guatemala's Democracy

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New Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo (R) and his vice president, Karin Herrera, on Aug. 20 in Guatemala City. In the aftermath of anti-corruption presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo's Aug. 20 runoff win, the attorney general's office sent a letter Aug. 23 to the president of Congress, Shirley Rivera, requesting the suspension of Arevalo's Seed Movement party in a bid to weaken the president-elect.

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A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Political Uncertainty in Guatemala, a Potential LNG Strike in Australia

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Supporters of Guatemalan presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo attend a campaign rally in the Central Square in Guatemala City, Guatemala, on Aug. 16, 2023. 

The Weekly Rundown: Lunar Landings, the BRICS Summit and a Host of Elections

Guatemalan presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo speaks to supporters during a campaign rally in Totonicapan, Guatemala on July 15, 2023, ahead of the upcoming runoff election. 

If anti-corruption candidate Bernardo Arevalo wins the Aug. 20 vote, attempts by the country's ruling elite to keep him from entering office could lead to mass protests and U.S. sanctions.

Previewing Guatemala's Presidential Runoff

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Employees of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal on June 20, 2023, arrange ballots in Guatemala City during preparations for the upcoming general elections.

The Weekly Rundown: Guatemala Holds General Elections, Pakistan's IMF Bailout Program Expires

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (C) at a weekly Cabinet meeting Feb. 19, 2023, in Jerusalem.

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The Weekly Rundown: Israel's Cabinet Votes on a National Guard, Von der Leyen and Macron Visit China

Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former president of Honduras, is seen handcuffed at the headquarters of the country’s police force in Tegucigalpa on Feb. 15, 2022. He was arrested after receiving an extradition order from the United States. 

Security

Security Challenges in Latin America

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The arrest of the Central American country’s former president over bribery charges marks a notable step in U.S. efforts to reduce migration flows from the region.

Biden’s Anti-Corruption Push Makes Headway in Honduras

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In this podcast, Emily Donahue speaks to Ben West, a Stratfor senior global security analyst, about the forecast for the U.S.-Mexico border in 2021.

Essential Geopolitics: The U.S.-Mexico Border Forecast for 2021

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Guatemala is still working out the details of how it will implement a 'safe third country' agreement signed last year with the United States.

The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.

Why the Details of a White House Asylum Deal Matter to Guatemala

Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales, shown speaking during an Aug. 14 news conference in Guatemala City, signed a so-called safe third-country agreement with the United States in July to try to stem migrant flows. By most measures, Guatemala is far from 'safe.'

The government recently pushed out a U.N. anti-corruption commission and signed an asylum agreement with the U.S. A failure to pursue corruption will exacerbate the conditions that drive Guatemalans north, and further anger the White House.

Corruption Fuels a Feedback Loop in Guatemala

Guatemala is one of the northernmost countries in Central America, bordering Mexico, Belize, Honduras and El Salvador. Guatemala’s mountainous terrain, tropical latitude and small size limit the country's influence in the Caribbean basin as compared to stronger North American neighbors.    The Sierra Madre Mountains stretch from Mexico into Guatemala, forming the majority of the country’s territory. The height and rugged terrain of this active volcanic range complicates the construction and maintenance of infrastructure, thereby limiting state control over the territory.    To the north, the tropical lowland Peten region comprises nearly a third of Guatemala’s territory. This humid region is densely forested with a climate unsuitable for agriculture. As a result, Peten is very lightly populated. Although Peten was for a time the heart of the Mayan civilization, the modern core of Guatemala lies in the southern Highlands.    At nearly 5,000 feet in elevation, the altitude of the capital, Guatemala City, moderates the tropical latitude, creating a mild climate suitable for growing crops like corn and beans that can support a sizable human population.    The city's strategic location gives the country access to both coasts and maritime trade on the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Guatemala has historically found itself battered by the policies of its larger neighbors, including a 36-year civil war that was directly influence by the Cold War.    Today, Guatemala is a stopping point for western hemispheric drug traffickers. Difficult geography, a complex political neighborhood and few natural resources stand in the way of economic development and will continue to complicate Guatemala’s geopolitical future.

The Importance of Mexico

Crossing Borders

SITUATION REPORTS

Guatemala: Authorities Seek to Remove Arevalo's Immunity, Opening Door to Possible Arrest

Guatemala: President-Elect's Seed Movement Party Suspended

Guatemala: Protests Against Attorney General Create Supply Chain Disruptions

Guatemala: Police Scuffle With Judges During New Raid

Guatemala: Domestic and International Allegations of 'Coup' Against President-Elect Increase

Guatemala: President-Elect Suspends Transition After Raids on Electoral Body

Guatemala: Electoral Institute Ratifies Arevalo's Win, Suspends His Party

Guatemala: Party of Losing Candidate Files Election Fraud Claim

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