United States

Venezuela

Military & Security

Politics

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media that he cancelled a "previously scheduled" second wave of attacks against Venezuela since the country's new government is cooperating with Washington, CNN reported on Jan. 9.

U.S., Venezuela: Trump Says He Cancelled Second Wave of Attacks After Caracas' Cooperation

Economics

Energy

U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington's oversight of Venezuela could last "much longer" than one year, The New York Times reported on Jan. 8.

U.S., Venezuela: Trump Says U.S. Could Oversee Venezuelan Oil for Years

Russia

U.S. security forces launched an operation to seize an oil tanker, the Russia-flagged Marinera, formerly known as the Bella 1, in the North Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Iceland, despite Russia's deployment of naval vessels to escort the ship and a request that the United States stop pursuing the tanker, BBC reported on Jan. 7. 

U.S., Russia, Venezuela: U.S. Conducts Operation To Seize Russia-Flagged Tanker

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela would turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil worth up to $2.8 billion to the United States, Reuters reported on Jan. 6.

U.S., Venezuela: Washington Announces Oil Deal With Caracas Worth Up To $2.8B

U.S. government officials have outlined to Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez that Washington's main priorities for Caracas are fighting drug trafficking, removing from the country operatives from Iran, Cuba and other nations hostile to the United States, and halting the shipment of oil to U.S. adversaries, Politico reported on Jan. 5.

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. Officials Outline Priorities for Caracas After Maduro's Departure

In response to a reporter's question, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States "hit" a dock area in Venezuela allegedly used to load drugs onto boats to be trafficked out of the country, saying there was a "major explosion," Reuters reported on Dec. 29. 

U.S., Venezuela: Trump Says U.S. Destroyed Drug Trafficking Facility in Venezuela

Cuba

Mexico

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed the shipment of 80,000 barrels of oil to Cuba, stating that it occurred pursuant to historic bilateral agreements and for humanitarian reasons, Efe reported Dec. 22.

Cuba: Mexico Confirms Oil Shipments Amid U.S. Blockade of Venezuela

The U.S. Coast Guard and Defense Department seized a second and third oil tanker Dec. 20 and Dec. 21, respectively, off the coast of Venezuela, AP reported Dec. 21.

Venezuela: U.S. Forces Seize Two Additional Tankers

Assessments

Benin

Uganda

Canada

Greenland

Iran

China

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Media

Ukraine

Forecast Webcast

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Brazil

Colombia

Guyana

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. 

Venezuela's acting president is most likely to cooperate with the United States to keep the country's regime intact, but other, more volatile scenarios remain possible. 

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Snapshots

Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.

The detention of the Venezuelan president creates a power vacuum that risks triggering violent unrest while establishing a precedent for further U.S. interventionism in Latin America.

U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

North Korea

South Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Paraguay

Egypt

Israel

Lebanon

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Europe

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Flight routes.

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.

The Trump administration will likely soon launch more strikes inside Venezuela following the reported CIA drone attack on a suspected drug port, though a U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

A U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II on Dec. 15 taxis at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.

The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami

The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.

Increased military mobilizations, failed negotiations with Maduro and persistent aggressive rhetoric suggest the Trump administration will likely soon escalate its Caribbean military campaign to targeted strikes in Venezuelan territory.

The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory

Chile

People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

Podcasts

Why are Venezuela's relationships with Russia, Iran and China so important to the United States?

Essential Geopolitics: The Primary Drivers and Constraints of U.S.-Venezuela Tensions

<p>Located in South America, Venezuela is bordered by Colombia, the Caribbean Sea, Guyana and Brazil. Colonized by the Spanish in the 16th century, Venezuela became an independent country in 1830. The northern portion of Venezuela is dominated by the eastern spur of the northern Andes. The mountains are cooler than the surrounding subtropical plains and host the majority of Venezuela&#39;s population. The country&#39;s core includes Lake Valencia and Caracas. Since the late 19th century, oil has been the driving force behind Venezuela&#39;s political and economic affairs. The first discoveries were made in the Maracaibo basin, and later discoveries revealed heavy, sour crude deposits in the Orinoco basin. The tropical Orinoco basin is largely unpopulated, with little significant infrastructure. Just to the south are the Guiana Highlands, which buffer Venezuela from the jungles of the Amazon River basin. As a Caribbean country, Venezuela lies within the direct sphere of influence of the United States. The United States is not only the largest military power in the region, but also the largest consumer market and a key destination for Venezuelan crude oil exports. As a result, Venezuela&#39;s primary geographic challenge is managing its relations with the United States. Venezuela has throughout history used its relationship with the United States to attract the foreign investment and technological development that resulted in the country&#39;s well-developed oil sector. But relations between the two countries don&#39;t always match the economic reality. Former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez built domestic and foreign policies around rejecting U.S. influence.</p>

Venezuela's Unraveling

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

A Crude Recovery

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Venezuela: Trump Says He Cancelled Second Wave of Attacks After Caracas' Cooperation

U.S., Venezuela: Trump Says U.S. Could Oversee Venezuelan Oil for Years

U.S., Russia, Venezuela: U.S. Conducts Operation To Seize Russia-Flagged Tanker

U.S., Venezuela: Washington Announces Oil Deal With Caracas Worth Up To $2.8B

U.S., Venezuela: U.S. Officials Outline Priorities for Caracas After Maduro's Departure

U.S., Venezuela: Trump Says U.S. Destroyed Drug Trafficking Facility in Venezuela

Cuba: Mexico Confirms Oil Shipments Amid U.S. Blockade of Venezuela

Venezuela: U.S. Forces Seize Two Additional Tankers

Forecasts

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