United States

Venezuela

Economics

Politics

The United States issued two new general licenses allowing financial transactions with some Venezuelan banks and ‌government officials, the U.S. Treasury Department announced on April 13. 

U.S. Venezuela: Washington Issues Licenses for Venezuelan Banks

Energy

The United States lifted sanctions on interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez, the U.S. Treasury Department announced on its website on April 1.

U.S., Venezuela: Washington Removes Sanctions on Interim President Rodriguez

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Venezuela must undergo ​a political transition and hold free and ‌fair elections, but asked for patience until that stage arrives, Fox News reported on March 31.

U.S. Venezuela: Rubio Defends Elections in Venezuela, but Asks for Patience

Military & Security

Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez posted on X on March 18 that she had replaced Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez with Maj. Gen. Gustavo Gonzalez, the commander of the presidential honor guard and a former intelligence chief.

Venezuela: President Removes Long-Time Defense Minister

In the coming days, the U.S. Treasury reportedly plans to issue additional licenses to specific companies to operate in Venezuela's oil sector, in an attempt to boost production and offset crude price increases stemming from the war in Iran, Bloomberg reported on March 17.

U.S., Venezuela: Venezuela Will Struggle To Boost Oil Production Quickly, Even With More U.S. Licenses

The United States expanded sanctions waivers for Venezuela, facilitating electricity and petrochemical investments and allowing fertilizer exports to the U.S. market, Reuters reported on March 13.

U.S., Venezuela: Washington Eases Sanctions and Allows Venezuelan Fertilizer Exports

The U.S. and Venezuelan governments agreed to resume diplomatic and consular ‌ties, El Pais reported on March 5. 

U.S., Venezuela: Resumption of Diplomatic Ties Indicates Sustained Collaboration

Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez said she will submit to the National Assembly a reform to the country's mining law in the coming days, Reuters reported on March 4. 

Venezuela, U.S.: Venezuela To Reform Mining Sector Amid U.S. Pressure

Media

Cuba

Mexico

Iran

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

China

Taiwan

Forecast Webcast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Assessments

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

Global Trade

U.S.-China Relations

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

Nigeria

Colombia

Greenland

Israel

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Benin

Uganda

Canada

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark. Ukraine security talks and a Gaza peace plan will be in the spotlight at Davos.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Brazil

Guyana

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. 

Venezuela's acting president is most likely to cooperate with the United States to keep the country's regime intact, but other, more volatile scenarios remain possible. 

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Snapshots

Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.

The detention of the Venezuelan president creates a power vacuum that risks triggering violent unrest while establishing a precedent for further U.S. interventionism in Latin America.

U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region

Yemen

North Korea

South Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.

The Trump administration will likely soon launch more strikes inside Venezuela following the reported CIA drone attack on a suspected drug port, though a U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

A U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II on Dec. 15 taxis at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.

The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami

<p>Located in South America, Venezuela is bordered by Colombia, the Caribbean Sea, Guyana and Brazil. Colonized by the Spanish in the 16th century, Venezuela became an independent country in 1830. The northern portion of Venezuela is dominated by the eastern spur of the northern Andes. The mountains are cooler than the surrounding subtropical plains and host the majority of Venezuela&#39;s population. The country&#39;s core includes Lake Valencia and Caracas. Since the late 19th century, oil has been the driving force behind Venezuela&#39;s political and economic affairs. The first discoveries were made in the Maracaibo basin, and later discoveries revealed heavy, sour crude deposits in the Orinoco basin. The tropical Orinoco basin is largely unpopulated, with little significant infrastructure. Just to the south are the Guiana Highlands, which buffer Venezuela from the jungles of the Amazon River basin. As a Caribbean country, Venezuela lies within the direct sphere of influence of the United States. The United States is not only the largest military power in the region, but also the largest consumer market and a key destination for Venezuelan crude oil exports. As a result, Venezuela&#39;s primary geographic challenge is managing its relations with the United States. Venezuela has throughout history used its relationship with the United States to attract the foreign investment and technological development that resulted in the country&#39;s well-developed oil sector. But relations between the two countries don&#39;t always match the economic reality. Former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez built domestic and foreign policies around rejecting U.S. influence.</p>

Venezuela's Unraveling

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

A Crude Recovery

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S. Venezuela: Washington Issues Licenses for Venezuelan Banks

U.S., Venezuela: Washington Removes Sanctions on Interim President Rodriguez

U.S. Venezuela: Rubio Defends Elections in Venezuela, but Asks for Patience

Venezuela: President Removes Long-Time Defense Minister

U.S., Venezuela: Venezuela Will Struggle To Boost Oil Production Quickly, Even With More U.S. Licenses

U.S., Venezuela: Washington Eases Sanctions and Allows Venezuelan Fertilizer Exports

U.S., Venezuela: Resumption of Diplomatic Ties Indicates Sustained Collaboration

Venezuela, U.S.: Venezuela To Reform Mining Sector Amid U.S. Pressure

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