United States

China

Economics

U.S.-China Relations

United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai announced on Dec. 23 the initiation of a Sec. 301 probe into China's policies and practices in targeting the semiconductor industry for dominance, the Office of the United States Trade Representative declared. 

U.S., China: U.S. Launches Sec. 301 Investigation on Chinese Legacy Semiconductors

Australia

Solomon Islands

Military & Security

Politics

Australia announced a four-year, $118 million commitment to expand the Solomon Islands' police force, Reuters reported on Dec. 20. 

Australia, Solomon Islands: Canberra Commits to New Police Deal in Solomon Islands

China lifted its four-year import ban on Australian rock lobsters, China's final blanket ban on Australian imports after bans ended on coal, barley, wine and beef, The Wall Street Journal reported on Dec. 20.

China, Australia: Beijing Lifts Lobster Import Restrictions on Canberra, Ending Final Blanket Ban

Taiwan

The opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party pushed through Taiwan's legislature three measures, including one that requires at least 10 of 15 Constitutional Court judges to be present to hear a case and at least nine judges to rule something "unconstitutional," up from the current simple majority, Focus Taiwan reported on Dec. 20. 

Taiwan: Opposition's Power Grab To Increase Political Polarization

Malaysia

Malaysian National Security Council Director-General Raja Nushirwan Zainal Abidin announced plans to modernize his country's navy and air force to safeguard its maritime domain, including in the South China Sea, while still emphasizing dialogue and diplomacy with other claimants, namely China, The Straits Times reported on Dec. 19. 

Malaysia: Kuala Lumpur To Strengthen Territorial Defense in South China Sea

Japan

Philippines

An annual Pentagon report on China's military detailed on Dec. 18 the faster-than-expected expansion of China's nuclear arsenal to 600 warheads in 2024. 

China, U.S.: Pentagon Report Highlights Escalating Missile Arms Race

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson scrapped a continuing resolution to fund the U.S. federal government through March 14, 2025, and avoid a government shutdown on Dec. 21 following opposition to the spending bill by incoming President Donald Trump and allies on Capitol Hill, AP reported on Dec. 18. 

U.S.: House Speaker Scraps Spending Bill, Raising Likelihood of Government Shutdown

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The U.S. government is weighing whether to ban home internet routers sold by Chinese manufacturer TP-Link as a part of an ongoing investigation into whether the devices are enabling cyberattacks, The Wall Street Journal reported on Dec. 18.

U.S., China: Washington Considers Ban on Popular Chinese Routers

Columns

On Geopolitics

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Assessments

Angola

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Tanzania

Zambia

Marshall Islands

Palau

Tuvalu

Sri Lanka

U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House. Biden on Dec. 2-4 will visit Angola, where he will focus on the Lobito Corridor project that aims to refurbish and expand railways connecting critical mineral-rich regions in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo with the Angolan port of Lobito.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Angola, von der Leyen's Second Term

Russia

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

Mexico

Iran

Israel

Ukraine

Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election event in the early hours of Nov. 6, 2024.

Global Elections

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-Iran Relations

Trump will place more tariffs on U.S. trade partners and reduce support for Ukraine, but he will largely maintain Biden's approach to the U.S. tech rivalry with China and the Middle East conflict.

Trump's Win Will Ripple Across the World

Azerbaijan

A sign for COP29 on Nov. 3, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. Negotiators at this year's U.N. Climate Change Conference will ultimately reach a new global climate finance deal, but progress on the global energy transition will not accelerate.

Energy

Negotiators at this year's U.N. Climate Change Conference will ultimately reach a new global climate finance deal, but progress on the global energy transition will not accelerate significantly.

What to Watch for at This Year's 'Finance COP' in Azerbaijan

Vietnam

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (R) and his Vietnamese counterpart Phan Van Gang, meet at the Pentagon in Washington D.C. on Sept. 9, 2024. 

Trump is more likely to impose tariffs to minimize the trade deficit, while Harris is more likely to call for supply chain decoupling from China -- either of which could strain U.S.-Vietnam ties.

What a Trump vs. Harris Presidency Would Mean for Vietnam

India

Indian soldiers walk along a road near the Zojila mountain pass that connects to Ladakh, bordering China, on Feb. 28, 2021. 

While their recent efforts to ease bilateral tensions will probably reduce the risk of border clashes, deep-seated mistrust between the two strategic rivals will very likely limit the scope of any reconciliation. 

After a Tense Few Years, India and China Try To Turn Down the Heat

Workers move batches of copper sheets on July 6, 2016, in Mufulira, Zambia. Zambia's copper output will likely steadily increase by the late 2020s on the back of a more stable tax environment and a global rush for critical minerals, but the country faces an uphill battle to meet its 2032 copper production target.

Zambia's copper output will likely steadily increase by the late 2020s on the back of a more stable tax environment and a global rush for critical minerals, but the country faces an uphill battle to meet its 2032 copper production target.

Zambia Banks on the Green Rush for Copper 

Cambodia

Laos

Thailand

The Geopolitics of Water

Amid pressing energy and geopolitical needs, the accelerating construction of upstream dams will exacerbate the Mekong River region's water shortages and environmental degradation.

The Geopolitics of Water: National Interests Sideline Environmental Concerns in the Mekong River Region

On Security

Americas

Europe

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

Ethiopia

Kenya

South Africa

Brazil

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Indonesia

Moldova

Vehicles pass by a banner thanking outgoing Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and congratulating President-elect Prabowo Subianto and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka ahead of their Oct. 20 inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 17, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Case in Kenya, an Inauguration in Indonesia

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the BRICS Business Forum on Oct. 18, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Despite host nation Russia's desire to speed progress on key issues like de-dollarization, internal disputes will likely prevent major breakthroughs that challenge the Western-led world order in the near term.

Russia's Goals for the BRICS Summit Will Likely Go Unrealized

<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., China: U.S. Launches Sec. 301 Investigation on Chinese Legacy Semiconductors

Australia, Solomon Islands: Canberra Commits to New Police Deal in Solomon Islands

China, Australia: Beijing Lifts Lobster Import Restrictions on Canberra, Ending Final Blanket Ban

Taiwan: Opposition's Power Grab To Increase Political Polarization

Malaysia: Kuala Lumpur To Strengthen Territorial Defense in South China Sea

China, U.S.: Pentagon Report Highlights Escalating Missile Arms Race

U.S.: House Speaker Scraps Spending Bill, Raising Likelihood of Government Shutdown

U.S., China: Washington Considers Ban on Popular Chinese Routers

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