United States

China

Taiwan

Military & Security

Politics

U.S. Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao ​told a Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing that a pending $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan would be paused to ensure sufficient air defense munitions for the Iran war, Reuters reported May 22.

U.S., Taiwan: Trump Administration Delays Arms Sale, Likely for China Trade Benefits

North Korea

Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit Pyongyang, North Korea, to speak with supreme leader Kim Jong Un as soon as late May or early June, according to senior government officials cited by South Korea's Yonhap news agency.

China, North Korea: Xi May Visit Pyongyang to Preempt Trump-Kim Talks

U.S.-China Relations

China is delaying approval for a summer visit to Beijing by U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby until President Donald Trump makes a decision on a pending $14 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, according to sources cited in a May 20 Financial Times report.

China, U.S., Taiwan: Colby Visit Hinges on Arms Sale, Trump Vows to Talk With Lai

Russia

Energy

Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 19-20 in Beijing, Ria Novosti reported.

Russia, China: Putin Visit Shows Deepening Alignment With China, but No Gas Breakthrough Occurs

Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

China's armed forces covertly trained approximately 200 Russian military personnel in drone warfare and combat tactics in late 2025, and some of those soldiers have since returned to fight in Ukraine, Reuters reported on May 19, citing three European intelligence agencies.

China, Russia: Beijing Reportedly Provided Covert Military Training to Russian Troops

Japan

Philippines

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said his country would likely be involved in "any" Taiwan conflict given Taiwan's geographic proximity and the need to protect the nearly 200,000 Filipinos who live and work there, Bloomberg reported on May 19.

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Reiterates Intention To Be Involved in 'Any' Taiwan Conflict

Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China on May 19-20 to discuss expanding bilateral cooperation with Chinese President Xi Jinping, including on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, Ria Novosti reported on May 18, citing Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov.

Russia, China: Putin To Discuss Power of Siberia 2 During China Visit

Economics

Regarding a pending large U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, U.S. President Donald Trump said, "I haven't approved it yet…it depends on China. It's a very good negotiating chip for us," according to a Fox News interview aired on May 15.

U.S., Taiwan: Trump Calls Taiwan Arms Sales a 'Negotiating Chip' With China

Assessments

Mexico

Iran

South Korea

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sept. 3, 2025, in Beijing's Tiananmen Square.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Middle East, Putin Heads to Beijing

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026.

Despite a mutual desire to stabilize relations, Xi and Trump's meetings produced few tangible results, sustaining the risk of future tariff escalations, export restrictions and other coercive measures.

Xi-Trump Talks Fail To Move the Needle on Major Issues

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a bilateral meeting in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025.

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The May 14-15 meetings will likely yield a limited extension of the current U.S.-China economic detente while leaving core strategic disputes over technology controls, Taiwan and Iran largely unresolved.

Trump-Xi Summit Likely To Preserve Trade Truce, Test Strategic Fault Lines

Kenya

Israel

Lebanon

France

United Kingdom

Boats on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the United States and Iran will remain elevated, especially around the strait, following the May 7 U.S.-Iran exchange of attacks and Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, France Convenes an Africa Summit

A Chinese vessel participates in oil exploration.

While China has so far fared well, persistent Strait of Hormuz disruptions would test its oil reserves and drive more defensive policies to secure growth, energy and export competitiveness.

Time Will Test China's Economic Resilience Against Iran War Shocks

Vietnam

A Chinese navy ship (background left) is seen while an Australian navy ship (right) takes part in a maritime cooperative activity with the Philippines and Canada in the disputed waters of the South China Sea on Sept. 3, 2025.

China, the Philippines and Vietnam's efforts to rebalance coercive activity with diplomatic engagement have temporarily lowered escalation risks, but persistent rivalries ensure long-term volatility.

In the South China Sea, Managed Tension Masks Long-Term Volatility

Canada

Peru

Hungary

A digital screen displaying news of U.S.-Iran peace talks April 10 in Islamabad. The United States and Iran are set to begin contentious talks April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, with disputes over the 10-point proposal as a framework for discussions and major gaps between U.S. and Iranian demands.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Talks, Hungarians Vote

Media

Cuba

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Myanmar

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

A freight train carrying cargo containers rides along a railway track in Ajmer, India, on Aug. 26, 2025.

Global Trade

New Delhi's decisions to permit specific imports and fast-track minority investments highlight its strategy of addressing critical manufacturing shortages, though relations are unlikely to extend beyond low-level confidence-building measures.

India Cautiously Opens up to Chinese Investment

Djibouti

Damage at the Azadi Sport Complex in the Iranian capital of Tehran on April 3.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Taiwan's KMT Restarts China Talks

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (C) answers questions during a plenary session of the House of Representatives at Parliament on March 26 in Tokyo. Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

A New Leader in Japan and an Old Feud With China

Newly elected opposition Kuomintang (KMT) leader Cheng Li-wun delivers a speech in Taipei on Nov. 1, 2025. 

The KMT's diplomatic outreach to Beijing may yield modest economic gains, but it will also hurt the party's electoral prospects, which could paradoxically raise the risk of military conflict in the coming years.

The Taiwanese Opposition's Plan To Revive Talks With China Will Likely Backfire

<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Taiwan: Trump Administration Delays Arms Sale, Likely for China Trade Benefits

China, North Korea: Xi May Visit Pyongyang to Preempt Trump-Kim Talks

China, U.S., Taiwan: Colby Visit Hinges on Arms Sale, Trump Vows to Talk With Lai

Russia, China: Putin Visit Shows Deepening Alignment With China, but No Gas Breakthrough Occurs

China, Russia: Beijing Reportedly Provided Covert Military Training to Russian Troops

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Reiterates Intention To Be Involved in 'Any' Taiwan Conflict

Russia, China: Putin To Discuss Power of Siberia 2 During China Visit

U.S., Taiwan: Trump Calls Taiwan Arms Sales a 'Negotiating Chip' With China

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support