United States

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

United Kingdom

Military & Security

Politics

A Hong Kong national security court sentenced the 78-year-old media tycoon and British dual-citizen Jimmy Lai to 20 years in prison on charges of foreign collusion and sedition, Reuters reported on Feb. 8.

Hong Kong: Lai Case Shows Political Assimilation and Will Strain U.S., U.K. Ties

Cambodia

Thailand

Thailand's ruling conservative Bhumjaithai Party won the Feb. 8 elections by securing 193 out of 500 seats in the House of Representatives (up from 71), while the left-wing People's Party won 118 (down from 151), the populist, center-left Pheu Thai Party won 74 (down from 141), and the new, military-aligned Kla Tham won 58, Reuters reported on Feb. 9. 

Thailand: Bhumjaithai Election Victory Stabilizes Politics, Empowers Military

Taiwan

U.S.-China Relations

Taiwan's defense ministry said it will ask the United States to extend deadlines for signing several arms purchase agreements because parliament has still not approved the required funding, Reuters reports Feb. 6.

Taiwan, U.S.: Taipei Seeks Extension for U.S. Arms Deal

Lithuania

Economics

China said it was open to resuming dialogue with Lithuania after Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene said the country's 2021 decision to allow Taiwan to open a de facto embassy in Vilnius was a mistake, Reuters reported Feb. 6.

Lithuania, China: Vilnius Signals Shift Toward Normalizing Relations With Beijing

South Africa

Eswatini

South African Minister for Trade and Industry Parks Tau signed a framework agreement with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Wentao, that paves the way for South African exports to gain duty-free access to the Chinese market, Reuters reported Feb. 6.

South Africa: Framework Agreement for Duty-Free Access With China Signed

Chinese state media announced on Feb. 4 the dismissal of three National People's Congress (NPC) delegates with ties to the defense industry, including senior figures from aviation and nuclear weapons research, without providing official reasons, Reuters reported.

China: Lawmakers With Defense-Sector Ties Dismissed as Anti-Corruption Purge Widens

Deputy Chairman Hsiao Hsu-tsen of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT) met with Director Song Tao of China's Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing on Feb. 3 to revive party-to-party talks that ended in 2016, the Taipei Times reported.

Taiwan: KMT Revives Dialogue With Chinese Communist Party

Europe

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The European Commission opened an in-depth investigation under the EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation into Chinese wind turbine manufacturer Goldwind, according to a Feb. 3 commission press release.

EU, China: Brussels Opens Subsidy Probe Into Chinese Wind Turbine Maker Goldwind  

Assessments

Russia

Russian soldiers wear chemical protection suits as they stand next to a military fueler on the base of a prime mover of Russian Topol intercontinental ballistic missile during a training session at the Serpukhov's military missile forces research institute some 100km outside Moscow on April 6, 2010.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Over time, this will intensify an ongoing buildup of nuclear capabilities across the globe and make crises involving nuclear powers more unpredictable and prone to miscalculations. 


Implications of the Last Major U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreement's Expiration

Snapshots

Zhang Youxia, senior vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), attends the opening of the fourth plenary session of the National People's Congress on March 11, 2023, in Beijing, China. 

The removal of Xi's closest military ally signals an acceleration of his push to eliminate internal threats and heightens uncertainty about the president's decision-making on Taiwan, potentially raising the risk of future conflict.

China's High-Level Military Purge Raises Risk of a Miscalculation on Taiwan

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Japan

South Korea

India

Egyptian trucks and heavy machinery on Oct. 26, 2025, on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Border Reopening, EU Leaders Visit India

Columns

On Geopolitics

Global Trade

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Venezuela

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Greenland

Iran

Norway

Ukraine

Pakistan

Cyber

Social Issues

U.S.-Iran Relations

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Benin

Uganda

Canada

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark. Ukraine security talks and a Gaza peace plan will be in the spotlight at Davos.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

North Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Australia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A general view shows the closed border checkpoint between Cambodia and Thailand in Poipet, Cambodia, on Dec. 12, 2025, amid clashes in the area.

The Southeast Asian countries' second pause following the failed July ceasefire remains highly fragile due to early alleged violations and unresolved territorial disputes, which could lead to renewed large-scale fighting in the years ahead.

Another Thai-Cambodian Truce Halts Escalating Border Clashes -- For Now

<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Hong Kong: Lai Case Shows Political Assimilation and Will Strain U.S., U.K. Ties

Thailand: Bhumjaithai Election Victory Stabilizes Politics, Empowers Military

Taiwan, U.S.: Taipei Seeks Extension for U.S. Arms Deal

Lithuania, China: Vilnius Signals Shift Toward Normalizing Relations With Beijing

South Africa: Framework Agreement for Duty-Free Access With China Signed

China: Lawmakers With Defense-Sector Ties Dismissed as Anti-Corruption Purge Widens

Taiwan: KMT Revives Dialogue With Chinese Communist Party

EU, China: Brussels Opens Subsidy Probe Into Chinese Wind Turbine Maker Goldwind

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support