United States

Iran

China

North Korea

Military & Security

Politics

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on March 1 that the United States' "blatant killing of a sovereign leader" in Iran and attempts at regime change were unacceptable, according to Xinhua, but Beijing has yet to threaten retaliation.

China, North Korea: Nations React Calmly to U.S. Strikes on Iran

Syria

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The U.S. State Department warned Syria's Communications Minister Abdulsalam Haykal in San Francisco earlier the week of Feb. 23 to avoid relying on Chinese telecommunications technology, Reuters reported on Feb. 27.

U.S., Syria: U.S. Warns Syria Against Chinese Telecoms

United Kingdom

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Russia

Kyrgyzstan

Energy

The United Kingdom hosted the inaugural Central Asia-U.K. (CA5+UK) foreign ministers' meeting in London, the British Foreign Office said on Feb. 26.

Central Asia, U.K.: London Launches Critical Minerals Push Across the Region

Australia

Lynas Rare Earths, Australia's largest rare earths producer and the only major commercial separator outside China, reported roughly $295 million in revenue and approximately $57 million in profit from July 2025 through December 2025, marking a sharp year-on-year increase, Nikkei Asia reported on Feb. 26.

Australia: Lynas Profit Surge a Potential Sign of Viability for Non-China Rare Earths, but Risks Loom Large

The Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress removed nine serving officers from their positions as delegates to the National People's Congress, including Ground Force Commander Li Qiaoming and Information Support Force Political Commissar Li Wei, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 26. 

China: Military Purge Expands, Deepening Command Uncertainty

U.S.-China Relations

Chinese shipments of yttrium, one of the heavy rare earth elements subject to Chinese export licensing requirements, and scandium, another element typically classified as a rare earth element subject to such requirements, to U.S. companies have remained low, increasing shortages for some aerospace and semiconductor companies, Reuters reported on Feb. 25. 

China, U.S.: Chinese Export Controls Still Causing Yttrium, Scandium Shortages

Japan

Taiwan

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said Japan will deploy its domestically produced Type-03 Chu-SAM medium-range surface-to-air defense missile system to the island of Yonaguni in March 2031, Channel News Asia reported on Feb. 24. 

Japan, Taiwan: Tokyo Sets 2031 Timeline for Missile Deployment on Yonaguni 

Cyber

U.S.-based artificial intelligence company Anthropic said three Chinese AI companies set up more than 24,000 fraudulent accounts with its Claude AI model to conduct "distillation" techniques that use data outputs to advance their own AI systems, The Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 23. 

U.S., China: Anthropic Claims Chinese Companies Are Using Claude for Distillation

Assessments

Canada

Germany

India

The Tehran skyline on Dec. 30, 2025. On March 2, U.S. and Iranian negotiators will meet in Vienna, Austria, to begin technical talks on a nuclear deal.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Conflict in the Middle East, Merz meets Trump 

A video interview of Taiwanese President William Lai plays onstage during The New York Times DealBook Summit 2025 at Jazz at Lincoln Center on Dec. 3, 2025, in New York City.

President Lai's political disputes with the legislature are unlikely to ease anytime soon, which could disrupt U.S. trade and arms deals and/or jeopardize future opportunities for diplomatic engagement with China.

Taiwan's Political Dysfunction Goes Global

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press Feb. 2 in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver the annual State of the Union address to Congress on Feb. 24.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Threatens Iran, Pledges To Reimpose Tariffs on Different Grounds

Snapshots

Mexico

South Korea

Vietnam

Europe

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House on Feb. 20, 2026, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump's use of emergency powers to implement international trade tariffs.

Global Trade

The Trump administration will use other trade authorities to replace many of the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, meaning U.S. trading partners will remain incentivized to engage on trade matters.

What the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Means for Trump and U.S. Trading Partners

Russian soldiers wear chemical protection suits as they stand next to a military fueler on the base of a prime mover of Russian Topol intercontinental ballistic missile during a training session at the Serpukhov's military missile forces research institute some 100km outside Moscow on April 6, 2010.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Over time, this will intensify an ongoing buildup of nuclear capabilities across the globe and make crises involving nuclear powers more unpredictable and prone to miscalculations. 


Implications of the Last Major U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreement's Expiration

Zhang Youxia, senior vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), attends the opening of the fourth plenary session of the National People's Congress on March 11, 2023, in Beijing, China. 

The removal of Xi's closest military ally signals an acceleration of his push to eliminate internal threats and heightens uncertainty about the president's decision-making on Taiwan, potentially raising the risk of future conflict.

China's High-Level Military Purge Raises Risk of a Miscalculation on Taiwan

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Egyptian trucks and heavy machinery on Oct. 26, 2025, on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Border Reopening, EU Leaders Visit India

Columns

On Geopolitics

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Venezuela

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Greenland

Norway

Ukraine

Pakistan

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Benin

Uganda

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark. Ukraine security talks and a Gaza peace plan will be in the spotlight at Davos.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

China, North Korea: Nations React Calmly to U.S. Strikes on Iran

U.S., Syria: U.S. Warns Syria Against Chinese Telecoms

Central Asia, U.K.: London Launches Critical Minerals Push Across the Region

Australia: Lynas Profit Surge a Potential Sign of Viability for Non-China Rare Earths, but Risks Loom Large

China: Military Purge Expands, Deepening Command Uncertainty

China, U.S.: Chinese Export Controls Still Causing Yttrium, Scandium Shortages

Japan, Taiwan: Tokyo Sets 2031 Timeline for Missile Deployment on Yonaguni

U.S., China: Anthropic Claims Chinese Companies Are Using Claude for Distillation

Forecasts

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