China

Philippines

Vietnam

Cyber

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Science & Technology

The Philippines and Vietnam upgraded ties to an enhanced strategic partnership during Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary and President To Lam's May 31-June 1 state visit to Manila, Reuters reported on June 1.

Philippines, Vietnam: Manila, Hanoi Upgrade Ties Amid South China Sea Pressure

Europe

Politics

European commissioners met to discuss measures aimed at shielding EU industries from a surge in subsidized Chinese imports and securing alternative supplies of critical minerals and key inputs to reduce reliance on Beijing, the European Commission said in a May 29 statement.

EU, China: European Commissioners Weigh Tougher Trade Defenses Against China

Kazakhstan

Russia

Energy

Russian President Vladimir Putin's state visit to Astana on May 27-28 produced a joint declaration on the "seven foundations" of friendship and good-neighborliness between Kazakhstan and Russia and a package of bilateral agreements, including accords on a $16.5 billion nuclear power plant and Russian export-credit financing for 85% of the project, Qazinform reported on May 28.

Kazakhstan, Russia: Putin Visit Highlights Kazakh Export Risks Despite Bilateral Pageantry

India

An Indian delegation visited Beijing on May 27 for the 35th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs, where, according to Indian official statements, both sides discussed border delimitation and trans-border river issues, Bloomberg reported on May 28. 

India, China: Governments Hold Talks on Border Cooperation

United States

Taiwan

U.S.-China Relations

The Taiwan People's Party on May 27 posted a notice on its website stating that TPP head Huang Kuo-chang had sent a letter to U.S. members of Congress calling for the U.S. Six Assurances to be codified into law, adding that "The U.S. commitment to Taiwan should be enduring and principled -- not an option to be bargained away through diplomatic horse-trading."

Taiwan: Third Party TPP Rejects U.S. Arms Sales as China Negotiating Chip

Pakistan

In a joint statement, Pakistan and China announced efforts to deepen bilateral ties and strengthen strategic coordination by promoting the "high-quality development" of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor 2.0, Reuters reported on May 26. 

China, Pakistan: Governments Seek To Upgrade CPEC, Gwadar Port

Japan

China's foreign ministry spokesperson on May 25 said China's export restrictions on dual-use items like critical minerals to Japan were intended to stop Japan's "remilitarization" and nuclear ambitions.

China, Japan: Beijing's Mineral Export Curbs Likely To Persist Through 2026

U.S. Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao ​told a Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing that a pending $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan would be paused to ensure sufficient air defense munitions for the Iran war, Reuters reported May 22.

U.S., Taiwan: Trump Administration Delays Arms Sale, Likely for China Trade Benefits

Assessments

Peru

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

North Korea

Armenia

A banner depicting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on June 3 in Tehran. There will be an elevated risk of sporadic U.S.-Iran clashes over the next week, as no signs of a diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations on a memorandum of understanding have emerged.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Armenian Elections, Xi Goes to North Korea

Media

Podcasts

How has U.S. grand strategy in the Pacific changed over time?

The Decision Advantage: Taiwan Arms Sales and the U.S.-China Trade War

Snapshots

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) gestures to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before a military parade in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3, 2025. 

North Korea's growing relations with Russia and potential reengagement with the U.S. appear to be driving China to pursue a rapprochement after years of diplomatic inaction.

Xi-Kim Summit Signals a Thaw in Long-Frozen Ties Between China and North Korea

Australia

Fiji

(From left to right) Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hold a joint press conference after their Quad meeting in New Delhi on May 26, 2026.

The meeting proved the grouping is still functional, but it faces strong constraints in turning ambitious coordination frameworks into functional maritime, infrastructure, critical minerals and energy initiatives that blunt Chinese regional influence.

Takeaways From Quad Summit: New Initiatives, Enduring Constraints and Future Uncertainty

Mexico

South Korea

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sept. 3, 2025, in Beijing's Tiananmen Square.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Middle East, Putin Heads to Beijing

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026.

Despite a mutual desire to stabilize relations, Xi and Trump's meetings produced few tangible results, sustaining the risk of future tariff escalations, export restrictions and other coercive measures.

Xi-Trump Talks Fail To Move the Needle on Major Issues

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a bilateral meeting in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025.

The May 14-15 meetings will likely yield a limited extension of the current U.S.-China economic detente while leaving core strategic disputes over technology controls, Taiwan and Iran largely unresolved.

Trump-Xi Summit Likely To Preserve Trade Truce, Test Strategic Fault Lines

Kenya

France

United Kingdom

Boats on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the United States and Iran will remain elevated, especially around the strait, following the May 7 U.S.-Iran exchange of attacks and Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, France Convenes an Africa Summit

A Chinese vessel participates in oil exploration.

While China has so far fared well, persistent Strait of Hormuz disruptions would test its oil reserves and drive more defensive policies to secure growth, energy and export competitiveness.

Time Will Test China's Economic Resilience Against Iran War Shocks

A Chinese navy ship (background left) is seen while an Australian navy ship (right) takes part in a maritime cooperative activity with the Philippines and Canada in the disputed waters of the South China Sea on Sept. 3, 2025.

China, the Philippines and Vietnam's efforts to rebalance coercive activity with diplomatic engagement have temporarily lowered escalation risks, but persistent rivalries ensure long-term volatility.

In the South China Sea, Managed Tension Masks Long-Term Volatility

Canada

Hungary

A digital screen displaying news of U.S.-Iran peace talks April 10 in Islamabad. The United States and Iran are set to begin contentious talks April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, with disputes over the 10-point proposal as a framework for discussions and major gaps between U.S. and Iranian demands.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Talks, Hungarians Vote

Cuba

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Philippines, Vietnam: Manila, Hanoi Upgrade Ties Amid South China Sea Pressure

EU, China: European Commissioners Weigh Tougher Trade Defenses Against China

Kazakhstan, Russia: Putin Visit Highlights Kazakh Export Risks Despite Bilateral Pageantry

India, China: Governments Hold Talks on Border Cooperation

Taiwan: Third Party TPP Rejects U.S. Arms Sales as China Negotiating Chip

China, Pakistan: Governments Seek To Upgrade CPEC, Gwadar Port

China, Japan: Beijing's Mineral Export Curbs Likely To Persist Through 2026

U.S., Taiwan: Trump Administration Delays Arms Sale, Likely for China Trade Benefits

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support