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U.S.-China Relations

China said it will take "corresponding measures" in response to U.S. plans to raise tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports from June 23, 2027, following the conclusion of a yearlong Section 301 probe into Beijing's chip policies, the South China Morning Post reported Dec. 24.

China: Beijing Threatens Retaliation Over Delayed U.S. Semiconductor Tariffs

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The Office of the United States Trade Representative concluded a yearlong Section 301 investigation, finding China's semiconductor industrial policies "unreasonable," but said any new tariffs on Chinese legacy chips will be delayed until June 2027 with rates announced at least 30 days in advance, the Financial Times reported Dec. 23. 

China: Washington Delays New Chip Tariffs to 2027 Amid Fragile Trade Truce

Global Trade

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) blacklisted all new foreign-made drones and components on Dec. 22, deeming that they pose "an unacceptable risk" to U.S. national security, Reuters reported Dec. 23.

U.S.: FCC Prohibits Approval of All New Foreign-Made Drones 

Military & Security

A draft Pentagon report assesses that China has likely loaded over 100 solid-fueled DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles into three recently identified silo fields near the Mongolian border, Reuters reported Dec. 23. 

China, U.S.: Beijing Continues To Build Up Nuclear Arsenal, Reject Arms Control Talks

Taiwan

The United States initiated congressional notification procedures for a proposed $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, the largest in history, covering high-mobility artillery rocket systems, howitzers, drones and anti-tank missiles, Reuters reported on Dec. 18.

Taiwan, U.S.: Washington Announces Record-Breaking $11B Arms Sale

Europe

The European Commission proposed changes on Dec. 16 to ease EU vehicle emissions rules, allowing some combustion engine vehicles to remain on the market beyond the planned 2035 phaseout, according to a press release.

EU: Brussels Weakens 2035 Combustion Engine Ban With Emissions Rule Overhaul

Hong Kong SAR, China

United Kingdom

A Hong Kong national security court found Jimmy Lai, the 78-year-old founder of shuttered pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, guilty on two counts of conspiring to collude with foreign forces under the 2020 National Security Law and one count of sedition under a colonial-era law, Hong Kong Free Press reported on Dec. 15.

Hong Kong, U.S., U.K.: Jimmy Lai Convicted, Raises Dilemma for Trump, Starmer

India

India streamlined business visas for Chinese professionals by dropping a layer of scrutiny and cutting approval times to under a month, Reuters reported on Dec. 12. 

India, China: India Eases Red Tape To Fast-Track Business Visas for Chinese Professionals

Assessments

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Russia

Kyrgyzstan

Energy

Despite growing interest from Russia, China and Western powers, Central Asia will struggle to emerge as a true continental trade hub due to competing agendas, weak financing and coordination, and security and governance issues.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty

Philippines

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

Columns

On Geopolitics

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Honduras

Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their bilateral meeting during the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin-Modi Meeting, Honduras General Election

While efforts by China and others to de-dollarize their international trade will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, they will do little to undermine the dollar's dominance.

The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade

U.S. President Donald Trump (C), joined by lawmakers and members of his administration, delivers remarks during a dinner with leaders of Central Asian countries in the East Room of the White House on Nov. 6, 2025.

The recent C5+1 summit highlighted the U.S.'s desire to boost cooperation with Central Asian countries on trade and critical minerals, but the region's geography, governance and reliance on China and Russia will ultimately limit the impact of such efforts. 

The Promise and Limits of Increased U.S. Engagement in Central Asia

Brazil

Iraq

Syria

Campaign posters Nov. 6 ahead of Nov. 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections in central Baghdad.

The Weekly Rundown: Iraqi Elections, a U.S.-China Deal Enters Effect

South Sudan

Burundi

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Kenya

Malawi

Mozambique

Rwanda

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia

Japan

The Geopolitics of Trade

Over the next decade, Kenya and Tanzania will compete for the title of East Africa's leading trade gateway, particularly as global demand for Central Africa's critical minerals grows. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 1 

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a photo session for participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 on Sept. 1, 2025, in Tianjin, China.

The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) outlines Beijing's intent to continue current economic policies, pursue new industrial priorities, further securitize Chinese society, escalate Xi's anti-corruption campaign, and use lawfare to fend off foreign trade disputes.

President Xi Lays Out China's Plans for the Next Five Years

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

China: Beijing Threatens Retaliation Over Delayed U.S. Semiconductor Tariffs

China: Washington Delays New Chip Tariffs to 2027 Amid Fragile Trade Truce

U.S.: FCC Prohibits Approval of All New Foreign-Made Drones

China, U.S.: Beijing Continues To Build Up Nuclear Arsenal, Reject Arms Control Talks

Taiwan, U.S.: Washington Announces Record-Breaking $11B Arms Sale

EU: Brussels Weakens 2035 Combustion Engine Ban With Emissions Rule Overhaul

Hong Kong, U.S., U.K.: Jimmy Lai Convicted, Raises Dilemma for Trump, Starmer

India, China: India Eases Red Tape To Fast-Track Business Visas for Chinese Professionals

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